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Demographic Performance And Federal Balance In Delimitation

Context
  • The article examines the upcoming delimitation exercise after the 2026 Census and its implications for federalism.
  • It highlights disparities in population growth across states and proposes incorporating demographic performance into seat allocation.
  • Source: Ensuring federalism within delimitation, The Hindu

Constitutional Basis Of Delimitation

  • Article 81 Principle: seats allocated to States based on population ensuring uniform population-seat ratio
  • Historical Parity: ratios were similar in 1951 and 1971 due to limited population divergence
  • Present Divergence: significant variation in State populations due to differential fertility trends

Freeze On Seat Allocation And Timeline

  • 84th Constitutional Amendment (2002): froze Lok Sabha and State Assembly seats until post-2026 Census
  • Rationale: incentivise States to pursue population stabilisation
  • Census Timeline: Census 2026 followed by results in 2028
  • Delimitation Commission: to be constituted after Census results
  • Electoral Impact: new seat allocation to be reflected in 2029 Lok Sabha elections

Trends In Fertility And Demographic Divergence

  • Replacement Level Fertility: TFR of 2.1 considered stabilisation benchmark
  • Early Achievers (2005): nine States reached TFR ≤ 2.1 (e.g., Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka)
  • Recent Trends (2021): most States achieved replacement fertility except Bihar, U.P., Jharkhand, Meghalaya, Manipur
  • Persistent Gap: high-TFR States still about 45% above low-TFR States (NFHS-5, 2019–21)
  • Mean TFR Difference: 1.64 (low group) vs 2.38 (high group)

Need For Revisiting Seat Allocation Principles

  • Unequal Demographic Performance: States differ significantly in population control outcomes
  • Incentive Concern: strict population-based allocation may penalise States with better demographic management
  • Policy Question: extent to which demographic performance should influence seat distribution

Demographic Performance (DemPer) Principle

  • Concept: incorporate population stabilisation efforts into delimitation criteria
  • Finance Commission Analogy: uses population plus demographic performance for fiscal allocation
  • Dual Criteria Approach: combine population size with DemPer for seat allocation

Proposed Weightage Framework

  • Existing Seats Protection: no change in current 543 Lok Sabha seats
  • Application Scope: DemPer applied only to additional seats post-expansion
  • Weight Allocation:
    • Early Achievement (TFR ≤ 2.1 before 2005): 10% weight
    • Rate of TFR Decline (2005–2021): 90% weight
  • Outcome: all States gain seats; populous States gain more in absolute terms

Federal Balance And Representation

  • Fair Federalism: ensures States with better demographic performance do not lose seat share
  • Beyond Raw Numbers: democracy involves fair voice, not just population size
  • Political Units Recognition: States treated as meaningful entities in representation

Governance And Political Implications

  • Incentive Preservation: rewards good governance in population control
  • Regional Harmony: reduces potential north-south or inter-State resentment
  • Representation Quality: improves balance between equity and effectiveness

Optimal Size Of Lok Sabha

  • Historical Benchmark: 10–11.1 lakh population per seat in 1971
  • Current Challenge: population nearly tripled (~1.4 billion)
  • Upper Limit Suggestion: Lok Sabha size should not exceed 700 for effective functioning
  • Deliberative Capacity: larger House may reduce quality of debate

Reframing The Federal Debate

  • Beyond North-South Divide: multiple States across regions contributed to population control
  • Inclusive Recognition: States like Punjab, Haryana, Himachal, Goa also early achievers
  • Union Stability: fair federal representation critical for national cohesion
Delimitation, Representation, and Federal Balance in India
Delimitation
  • Definition: The administrative process of redrawing boundaries of Lok Sabha and State Assembly constituencies to reflect population changes.
  • Recent Exercise: The last delimitation (2002–2008) revised constituency boundaries but did not increase the total number of seats.
  • Upcoming Exercise: A fresh delimitation is expected after the next Census (scheduled for 2026–2027), making it a politically significant process.
Article 81 and Lok Sabha Composition
  • Constitutional Basis: Article 81 defines the composition of the Lok Sabha, including allocation of seats among states.
  • Uniformity Principle: Article 81(2) mandates that the ratio between population and seats should be “as far as practicable, the same for all States.”
  • Seat Freeze Mechanism:
    • Introduced by the 42nd Amendment (1976) and extended by the 84th Amendment (2001).
    • Maintains seat allocation based on the 1971 Census.
  • Purpose of Freeze: Protects states that successfully implemented population control policies from losing political representation.
Population-Based Representation
  • Core Principle: Based on “one person, one vote, one value,” ensuring equal representation for citizens.
  • Implication in India: States with larger populations (e.g., Uttar Pradesh) are entitled to more MPs than less populous states (e.g., Kerala).
  • Democratic Objective: Ensures fairness in representation by aligning seats with population size.
Demographic Context – Early Achievers
  • Definition: States that achieved replacement fertility rate (TFR 2.1) earlier than the national average.
  • Key States: Kerala (1988), Tamil Nadu (1993), Andhra Pradesh (2001), Karnataka (2005).
  • Current Challenge:
    • Facing aging populations.
    • Experiencing declining share in national population.
  • Political Concern: Risk of losing representation and influence in Parliament relative to high-growth states like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh.
Population per Seat Ratio
  • Concept: Average number of citizens represented by one MP.
  • Current Disparity:
    • High-population states (e.g., Bihar, Rajasthan): ~2.5–3 million per MP.
    • Lower-growth states (e.g., Tamil Nadu, Kerala): ~1.8 million per MP.
  • Objective of Delimitation: To normalize this ratio across states and reduce representational inequality.
Electoral Equality vs. Federal Equity
  • Electoral Equality:
    • Emphasizes equal weight to each vote.
    • Requires increasing seats for high-population states.
  • Federal Equity:
    • Argues against penalizing states that achieved demographic control.
    • Seeks to preserve balanced inter-state representation.
  • Core Tension: Balancing democratic fairness with cooperative federalism.
Regional Imbalance Concerns
  • North-South Divide Risk: Population-based delimitation may disproportionately increase representation of northern states.
  • Political Consequence: A few populous states could command over 50% of Lok Sabha seats.
  • Federal Impact: Potential marginalization of southern and western states in national decision-making.
Fair Federalism – Proposed Middle Path
  • Concept: Balancing population-based representation with inter-state equity in the 2026 delimitation.
  • Expansion of Lok Sabha: Proposal to increase total seats (e.g., ~888 seats in the new Parliament building) so that no state loses its current representation.
  • Performance-Based Weightage: Suggestion to incorporate “Demographic Performance” (similar to Finance Commission criteria) to reward states for effective population control and social development.
  • Objective: Ensure both democratic legitimacy and federal balance in representation.

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