China’s Liquid Bomb In Tibet Threatens India’s Water Security

China’s aggressive dam-building in Tibet, including plans for the world’s largest hydropower project on the Brahmaputra, gives it control over vital water resources flowing into India.

This strategic hold, described as a ‘liquid bomb,’ risks unleashing floods, water shortages, and ecological disasters downstream, posing severe environmental and geopolitical challenges.

• India’s Water Crisis: Groundwater levels in India are rapidly decreasing, and rivers are heavily polluted. Around 80% of the water from the western rivers has already been allocated to Pakistan under the Indus Water Treaty. Despite the critical situation, water conservation, preservation, and storage are not given the importance they deserve.
• China’s Approach to Water Management: Seventy-five years ago, China anticipated a looming water crisis in its region. This foresight might have influenced their decision to annex Tibet, which is a key source of water. Today, China controls the major rivers of South Asia. Approximately 718 billion cubic meters of surface water flows out from the Tibetan plateau every year.

Tibet: The Water Source Of South Asia

The Roof of the World and Its Water Wealth

Tibet plays a vital role as a water provider, rainmaker, and reservoir for South Asia. Its vast plateau is home to the largest ice mass outside the Arctic and Antarctica. Spanning 2,400 km from east to west and 1,450 km from north to south, the plateau sits at an average height of 4,000 meters, earning its title as “the Roof of the World.” This region boasts over 18,000 glaciers and 1,500 high-altitude lakes, making it a significant freshwater reserve.

Rivers Originating from the Tibetan Plateau

The Tibetan Plateau is the source of some of the world’s most important rivers. These include the Yangtze, Yellow, Mekong, Salween, Irrawaddy, Arun, Brahmaputra, Sutlej, and Indus rivers. Many tributaries of the Ganga, such as the Karnali, Gandak, and Kosi, also originate here, supplying water to multiple countries.

The Impact of China’s Control Over Tibet

When China annexed Tibet, most of the plateau’s river waters flowed naturally to downstream regions like India, Nepal, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Bhutan, and Southeast Asian countries. However, growing water usage on the plateau and China’s inter-river and inter-basin transfer projects have raised concerns. These activities are altering water flow, creating serious implications for the countries relying on Tibet’s water resources.

China’s Extensive Dam Building

• The World’s Leading Dam Builder: China has built more dams than any other country. Over the past 70–80 years, it has constructed more than 87,000 dams. It views water as a sovereign resource and not something to be shared with others.
• Lack of Data Sharing: China does not provide information about water flow or hydropower operations to downstream countries. It believes no water should leave China without first being utilized or paid for by lower riparian nations.
• Damming Major Tibetan Rivers: Every major river on the Tibetan Plateau has been dammed by China. This includes the Mekong, Salween, Yarlung Tsangpo, Yangtze, Yellow, Indus, Sutlej, Shweli, and Karnali. Some of these dams may serve as reservoirs to supply electricity to mainland China.
• Location Risks Near Fault Lines: Many of these dams are built near a geological fault line where the Indian Plate collides with the Eurasian Plate. Natural disasters in this region could severely damage the dams and cause flooding downstream.
• Transparency Concerns: China has not officially disclosed its dam-building activities on Tibetan rivers. This lack of transparency raises concerns about the potential risks and effects on river systems that sustain millions of people.

Tibet’s Contribution To Indian River Systems

• Indus River System: The Indus River originates from Mount Kailash and Lake Mapam in Tibet. It enters India through Ladakh before flowing into Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK). The Sutlej River, the longest tributary of the Indus, also begins at Mount Kailash and Lake Mansarovar, entering India through Himachal Pradesh.
• Brahmaputra River: Origin and Flow: The Yarlung Tsangpo, known as the Brahmaputra in India, also originates from Mount Kailash. It flows eastward in Tibet at an altitude of over 4,000 meters, covering 1,650 km. This river is one of the world’s highest and fastest flowing, ranking fourth globally by discharge volume.
• Significance of the Brahmaputra: The Brahmaputra is the most significant river flowing from China into another country due to its massive volume. Its average annual transboundary flow into India is 165.4 BCM, surpassing the combined flows of the Mekong and Salween. It enters India at Korbo near the McMahon Line as the Siang River in Arunachal Pradesh.
• Journey Through India: The Siang River flows 400 km through a canyon before merging with the Dibang and Lohit rivers in Assam’s plains at Kobo near Sadiya town. From this confluence, it is called the Brahmaputra. The river then flows another 650 km before entering Bangladesh.
• Hydropower and Water Resources: The Brahmaputra accounts for over 30% of India’s water resources and about 40% of the country’s hydropower potential, which is estimated at 31,012 MW. However, only 3% of this potential has been harnessed so far.

China’s Hydropower Ambitions On The Yarlung Tsangpo

• A Record-Breaking Dam: China is planning to build the world’s largest hydropower dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo River. This massive project will be located on the eastern edge of the fragile Tibetan Plateau. The river flows eastward from Kailash Mansarovar before sharply turning south toward India through a narrow, deep gorge.
• The Great Bend: A Strategic Location: The planned dam site is near the Great Bend of the Yarlung Tsangpo in the Pemako area. This location is ideal due to the river’s steep descent, making it suitable for hydropower generation. The canyon here, the steepest and longest in the world, provides the conditions necessary for a high-capacity dam.
• Unclear Project Details: While it is known that the dam will be constructed at the Great Bend in Medog, just 30 km from India’s border, specifics remain uncertain. It is unclear whether the project is solely a run-of-the-river hydropower plant or part of China’s South-North water diversion initiative.
• Enormous Power Generation: The proposed dam will produce an unprecedented amount of electricity, with a capacity of 38 gigawatts—more than twice that of the Three Gorges Dam. Some reports suggest an even higher capacity of 60,000 MW, making it three times larger than the current largest hydroelectric facility on the Yangtze River.
• Environmental and Regional Concerns: Harnessing water in the catchment area of this massive dam, with gorge walls over 5,000 meters high, poses significant environmental and ecological challenges. The project’s proximity to India raises additional concerns about its potential impact on downstream water flows.

Potential Effects On India

Impact on Water Flow

The massive hydropower project is likely to affect the water flow of the Brahmaputra, especially if China gains control over its regulation. While the Siang River contributes significantly, the Brahmaputra also relies heavily on rainfall in the catchment areas of its tributaries like the Lohit and Subansiri.

However, these flows vary, especially during the lean season. Without consistent water from the Siang, fluvial ecosystems that depend on perennial water sources could face a major ecological crisis.

Risk of Flooding

A sudden release of water from the dam by China could cause catastrophic flooding in Assam. The Brahmaputra already has India’s widest water channel, exceeding 10 km in some areas. If the channel expands to 15–20 km due to a surge of water, it would lead to widespread destruction, submerging regions and cutting off access between Assam and Arunachal Pradesh.

Environmental Concerns

The dam could cause severe environmental damage. Deforestation in the region would lead to rapid soil erosion and frequent landslides. Additionally, the Brahmaputra carries nutrient-rich silt essential for farming and soil fertility downstream. Disrupting this silt flow would harm agriculture and aquatic ecosystems, affecting both the quantity and quality of resources.

Threat of Water Diversion

Beyond damming rivers, China’s South-North Water Diversion Project poses a threat to India. If Tibet’s waters are diverted, India could face significant shortages, especially in the Brahmaputra basin, which is crucial for water supply and agriculture in the region.

Earthquake Hazards

The Himalayan region is prone to earthquakes, making the 38-gigawatt dam at the Great Bend particularly risky. In the event of a major earthquake, the sudden release of water from such a large dam would be disastrous for India, with downstream areas bearing the full impact of the flooding.

Weaponizing Water: A Strategic Challenge

China’s Control Over Upstream Waters

India, as a downstream nation, faces risks due to China’s control of upstream water sources. By altering dam flows, China can weaponize water during conflicts. Sudden water releases may lead to flooding, while withholding it could cause droughts, triggering severe ecological and humanitarian crises. Such tactics amplify mistrust and showcase water as a potential military tool.

The Risks of Water as a Weapon

Excessive water releases or deliberate shortages can destabilize downstream regions. If water is used as part of a military strategy, the consequences could be devastating. These risks emphasize the urgent need for trust and cooperation among nations that share water resources.

Fostering Shared Interests

Unilateral decisions on shared waters are unsustainable. To resolve disputes, countries need to focus on common interests and work toward shared objectives. This approach can reduce conflicts and encourage collaboration in managing transboundary water resources.

Building a Joint Framework

India and China must prioritize creating a comprehensive framework to address water-related disputes. Setting aside ongoing border issues, both nations can develop a cooperative strategy for managing shared water resources. A long-term plan is key to ensuring stability and fostering trust.

Beyond a Realist View

Seeing China only through a ‘Realist’ lens intensifies water-related tensions. Adopting broader perspectives can encourage dialogue and mutual understanding. Peaceful cooperation in managing shared waters is essential for regional stability and sustainable development.

Source: How China is damming rivers in Tibet to build ‘liquid bomb’ against India, First Post, January 11, 2025

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