Economic and geopolitical shifts are rapidly transforming West Asia. With the expansion of BRICS to include Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iran, and Egypt, all brokered by China, the dynamics of international relations are changing. The region is also witnessing a technological boom with countries vying for secure future technologies.
- BRICS, initially a group of four major emerging national economies – Brazil, Russia, India, and China, expanded in 2010 to include South Africa. Its recent expansion in 2023 to add Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iran, and Egypt signifies China’s growing influence in multilateral forums.
- The BRICS expansion, although its accomplishments have been limited since the previous expansion, was made possible by a peace agreement brokered by China between Saudi Arabia and Iran. The negotiations played a crucial role in facilitating this process.
- In West Asia, the pursuit of technological advancements encompasses diverse domains, including economic strategies, food security, efficient governance, and cutting-edge defence systems.
- Countries such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia are actively pursuing the diversification of their geopolitical alliances. Traditionally aligned with the US, they now aim to secure investments that are independent of Western constraints on matters of human rights and democracy.
- China has emerged as a compelling choice, providing access to cutting-edge technologies without imposing excessive conditions or obligations.
China’s Expanding Influence In West Asia
China is increasingly making its presence felt in West Asia, particularly in the realms of technology and defence. This is evident in countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and even smaller states such as Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar.
- Chinese AI experts are finding opportunities in Saudi Arabia, as the US job market becomes less accessible.
- Chinese companies are selling armed drones and light aircraft to the UAE. They are doing this in the defence sector. This gets around the problems the US Congress has with these kinds of exports.
- Tech giants like Huawei are heavily involved in developing critical tech infrastructure for the future in the Gulf.
- Huawei has expressed a potential interest in establishing its West Asian headquarters in Saudi Arabia.
- The US and UAE have some disagreements about selling high-tech defence equipment. One example is a deal for F-35 fighter aircraft that is currently not moving forward. The US is worried because its defence equipment might be too close to Chinese technology.
- Smaller West Asian states like Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar are also showing greater openness towards cooperation and trade with China, particularly in the tech sector.
Reformation In Economic Structures
The increasing boldness of China’s approach to the West Asian region can be attributed not only to its strategic plans but also to the perspective of West Asian countries, such as Saudi Arabia and UAE, on emerging global situations.
- These situations include the COVID-19 crisis, Russia’s conflict with Ukraine, and the perceived advent of a rivalry reminiscent of the Cold War between the US and China.
- Many Arab states have devised plans to drastically reform their economies.
- The goal is to shift from an excessive reliance on hydrocarbon resources to developing their own services and manufacturing sectors. They are also keen to explore opportunities in technology-led development.
- They also aim to establish themselves as new hubs for global finance.
- Oil will still play a significant part in this transition, but the attraction of foreign investment and business into the region hinges on long-term political stability.
- It is crucial to highlight that the attainment of the aforementioned objectives by these countries heavily relies on maintaining political stability in the region. The China-brokered Saudi-Iran deal should be seen in this context.
Recalibrating India’s West Asia Policy Amidst Rising Chinese Influence
In the prevailing geopolitical climate, a few notable shifts are evident. Key alliances, like the I2U2 group involving Israel, India, UAE, and the US, are strengthening their bonds to counterbalance China’s expanding influence. There’s a shared intent to ensure US involvement while challenging China’s dominance.
- India has adopted a tough stance against Chinese companies like Huawei, prioritising national security and aiming to limit their integration into the country’s economic infrastructure.
- Post the 2020 border conflict, the Indian public opinion of China has drastically deteriorated. Policymakers in India are exploring the option of economic sanctions against China.
- Although India’s diplomatic ties with West Asia have improved over the past decade, the rise of technological geopolitics might pose a challenge.
- West Asia’s engagement with China marks a new era of strategic autonomy, a concept that India, too, employs for its national interests. However, their strategic objectives differ in this context.
- If countries in West Asia continue to work closely with Chinese tech companies, India will have to use clever diplomacy. This strategy must make sure that the spread of Chinese technology in West Asia doesn’t harm India. At the same time, it should not hurt the good economic relations between India and West Asia.