Gulmarg, a prime winter hotspot in Kashmir, hasn’t seen much snow this season. This lack of snow has caused a significant dip in the number of tourists, which has, in turn, adversely affected the businesses of ski resorts.
Key Issues
- Snow – More Than a Tourist Attraction: In Kashmir, snowfall isn’t just a picturesque sight for tourists. It plays a fundamental role in local climate regulation, winter agriculture, horticulture, and the sustenance of aquatic life in streams and rivers. Snowfall also has a ripple effect on the local economy.
- The Widespread Impact: While Gulmarg’s snowless state is the most striking, the entire regions of Jammu, Kashmir, and Ladakh are feeling the impact. These areas have largely been devoid of rain and snow this winter, painting a worrying picture of the environmental changes at hand.
- The Dry Winter Season: Traditionally, the regions of Jammu and Kashmir, along with Ladakh, receive their first snowfall in early December. More snowfall usually occurs throughout most of January. However, this season has been noticeably dry. According to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), there was an 80 per cent rainfall deficit in December, and so far in January, there has been absolutely no rainfall. Remarkably, Ladakh has not received any precipitation in December or January.
- A Worrying Trend: Snowfall in these regions has been on the decline in recent years, with this year standing out particularly. Scientists attribute this trend of decreasing snowfall to a reduction in western disturbance events and a gradual rise in temperatures, a consequence of climate change. The current El Nino event in the eastern Pacific Ocean might also be a contributing factor this year.
Understanding Western Disturbances
Western Disturbances are the main cause of winter precipitation in the Himalayan region. These wind systems carry rain and move eastward. They originate in the areas beyond Afghanistan and Iran. Interestingly, they can pick up moisture from distances as far as the Mediterranean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean.
- Role of Western Disturbances in India’s Climate: The rainfall in north and northwest India during the post-monsoon and winter months is primarily due to Western Disturbances. These disturbances, along with the south-west monsoon (June to September), and the north-east monsoon (impacting Tamil Nadu and some other regions), are key contributors to India’s annual rainfall.
- Frequency of Western Disturbances: Typically, during winters, there are about four to six western disturbance events every month. However, this season saw a weak western disturbance event in December and another in January, neither of which brought any substantial rains.
- Declining Trend: Western disturbances are becoming less frequent. Instead of the average five to six events a month, we’re witnessing only two to three. This reduced frequency is leading to lower precipitation during winter in northern regions.
- Evidence of Decline: Numerous recent studies, including those by Dimri, confirm this decrease. One significant finding is that the frequency of strong and extreme Western Disturbances, those causing rainfall or snowfall, has declined by a striking 43% in recent years.
- Rising Temperatures: Along with this, temperatures in these regions are on the rise. The increase is more pronounced in higher elevation areas compared to the plains. For instance, winter temperatures in Kashmir are now often similar to, or even higher than those in Delhi. This temperature rise is also resulting in decreased snowfall.
El Nino’s Role
In the past ten years, Jammu and Kashmir experienced drier winters with minimal snowfall, particularly in 2022, 2018, and 2015. IMD suggests a potential influence of El Nino on the forthcoming winter.
- Persistence of El Nino: Over the last few months, El Nino has remained active and is expected to persist in the future. This phenomenon has impacted the global atmospheric circulation and could be a contributing factor to the region’s reduced precipitation. However, it’s essential to note that El Nino isn’t the sole cause.
- Snowfall in Non-El Nino Years: Interestingly, low snowfall has been recorded in some years, even in the absence of El Nino. Notably, the months of December 2022, December-January 2018, January 2015, December 2014, December-January 1998, and December 1992 were drier.
- Climate Change and Snowfall: The decrease in snowfall in Kashmir could be a direct result of climate change. Many studies align with this hypothesis, indicating that climate change plays a significant role in these weather changes.
Impact
- Long-Term Effects of Less Snowfall: The decrease in snowfall may lead to long-lasting issues. Fewer snow means less water for generating hydroelectric power. Likewise, glaciers may melt faster due to reduced snowfall. Our drinking water supply also faces risk. Since snow recharges groundwater, less snow can cause a significant reduction in our water resources.
- Short-Term Consequences of Insufficient Snowfall: In the short term, less snowfall can cause immediate problems. This includes an increase in forest fires and agricultural droughts, leading to a drop in crop yields. According to Ahmad, early springs, induced by lower snowfall, can lead to premature flowering and eventually lower crop yields.
- Impact on Agriculture: Winter snow is crucial for many winter crops. It provides steady moisture to the soil, essential for horticulture. When there’s a lack of snowfall, the production of local economy staples like apples and saffron suffers significantly.