On September 26, 2023, the International Energy Agency (IEA) unveiled a revised edition of its groundbreaking 2021 report titled “Net Zero Roadmap: A Global Pathway to Achieve the 1.5°C Goal.”
The 2021 version made a bold statement that no new fossil fuel projects can be pursued if the world wants to achieve its climate goals. The 2023 report arrives at a crucial moment, coinciding with the 28th Conference of Parties (COP 28) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which will convene in Dubai, United Arab Emirates later this year to engage in political discussions on the Global Stocktake Report.
Also Read | Everything You Need To Know About Net Zero Emissions
Emissions: Latest Assessment
- Energy sector emissions reached a new high of 37 billion tonnes, 1% above the levels seen before the pandemic.
- Economic recovery and geopolitical tensions were key drivers of this increase, along with more investment in fossil fuel projects.
- The IEA forecasts that within this decade, we’ll see the peak of global CO2 emissions from the energy sector along with a peak demand for coal, oil, and natural gas. However, this is still not sufficient to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
- The Net Zero Emissions (NZE) scenario predicts total energy sector CO2 emissions for 2030 at 24 gigatonnes (Gt), which is 3 Gt more than the 2021 report’s prediction.
- To make emission reduction more equitable, the 2023 report suggests that advanced economies should reach net zero emissions around 2045. China should aim for net zero emissions around 2050, and other emerging and developing economies should achieve this well after 2050.
- The report further advocates for a significant drop in emissions by 2035: 80% for advanced economies and 60% for emerging and developing economies compared to 2022 levels.
Also Read | India’s Net Zero Ambition
What Does It Take to Achieve Net Zero Emissions?
- The 2023 report underlined that achieving net zero emissions requires two key steps. Firstly, we need to massively increase our use of clean energy. Secondly, we should cut down on our reliance on fossil fuels.
- The report clearly states that to reach net zero emissions, we don’t have to start new projects in coal, oil or natural gas. This includes new coal mines, the extensions of existing mines, or new coal plants that don’t have emission control methods.
- However, the report also emphasised that we should continue investing in current oil and gas assets and projects that have already been approved.
Changes In 2021 And 2023 Reports
- The 2021 Report stated clearly: No new oil and gas projects are needed in the NZE (Net Zero Emissions) scenario.
- However, the 2023 Report had a subtle change: It said no new “long-lead time upstream” oil and gas projects are required.
- Understanding these terms:
- ‘Upstream’ refers to the exploration and production stages in oil and gas projects.
- ‘Midstream’ means the transportation and processing stages.
- ‘Downstream’ denotes the distribution and sale to end users.
- The 2023 Report’s wording might allow for certain oil and gas activities. Specifically, it could permit existing large-scale projects by only banning new upstream activities.
- This is a change from the 2021 Report that called for a complete stop to new fossil fuel projects.
Net Zero Emissions (NZE) By 2050: Key Recommendations
- The 2023 report outlined the essential measures required for the world to attain Net Zero Emissions (NZE) by 2050.
- The report calls for a 75% reduction in carbon emissions by 2030, mainly through measures in oil and natural gas operations, costing only 2% of their 2022 net income.
- Clean energy investments should mainly focus on emerging markets and developing economies, with proposed amounts of $4.5 trillion by the early 2030s and $4.7 trillion by 2050.
- The report suggests an annual concessional funding of $80-100 billion by the early 2030s for the Net Zero Emissions (NZE) scenario, with Africa needing the largest portion, followed by India and Latin America.
- More ambitious Nationally Determined Contributions are needed to align with the Paris Agreement and achieve net-zero goals by 2050, especially for higher-income, higher-emitting countries.
- Large investments are needed in electricity infrastructure, with an expansion of approximately two million kilometres of transmission and distribution grids annually until 2030.
- Despite its potential, Carbon Capture, Utilisation, and Storage (CCUS) has not made significant progress and its role in climate mitigation has been revised downward in the 2023 report.