Founded in 1875, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) celebrated 150 years of its establishment on January 15. Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched Mission Mausam a day earlier, on January 14, to commemorate the milestone.
What Is Mission Mausam?
Mission Mausam is an initiative to enhance the capabilities of India’s weather department in forecasting, modeling, and information sharing. It has an allocated budget of ₹2,000 crore for its first two years.
The mission focuses on improving weather surveillance, forecasting, and modeling to benefit sectors like agriculture, aviation, defense, disaster management, tourism, and health.
It aims to strengthen all aspects of weather services in the country. A similar effort was undertaken in 2012 with Mission Monsoon, which focused on improving long-range monsoon predictions.
Did You Know?
The IMD’s accuracy for predicting extreme events like heatwaves up to 24 hours in advance is approximately 97.99%. However, its accuracy for forecasting heavy rainfall is only about 80%.
Why Mission Mausam Is Necessary
India’s tropical climate and diverse geography make weather forecasting especially challenging. The Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) identifies several issues:
- Limited Observational Data: The observation network does not have enough coverage in time and space for precise predictions.
- Low Model Resolution: Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models use a horizontal resolution of 12 km, which is insufficient for forecasting localized weather events.
- Impact of Climate Change: Climate change is increasing the frequency of extreme events like heavy rainfall, cloudbursts, thunderstorms, and lightning, leading to the dual threat of floods and droughts.
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Mission Mausam: Key Objectives
- Improved NWP Model Resolution: Increase resolution from 12 km to 6 km for detailed, panchayat-level forecasts.
- Enhanced Forecast Accuracy: Improve short-to-medium range forecast accuracy by 5–10 per cent.
- Better Air Quality Predictions: Enhance air quality forecasts in metro cities by up to 10 per cent.
- Extended Forecast Lead Time: Provide forecasts with a lead time of 10–15 days.
- Reduced Nowcasting Intervals: Shorten nowcasting intervals from three hours to one hour.
How Mission Mausam Will Operate
A key feature of Mission Mausam is the creation of a cloud chamber at IITM, Pune. This facility will produce artificial clouds to study how they behave as temperatures rise.
The experiments will identify which types of clouds can be seeded, the materials required, and the ideal amounts for triggering or suppressing rainfall.
These findings will also help reduce the risks of extreme weather events, such as thunderstorms and lightning.
The mission also aims to develop weather management techniques, moving beyond just forecasting to actively managing weather impacts.
Phase One (2023–2026): Strengthening Observation Systems
The first phase aims to expand India’s weather observation network. Its main objectives are:
- Increasing the number of Doppler radars from 39 to 70.
- Installing 10 wind profilers and 10 radiometers for precise atmospheric data.
- Upgrading supercomputers to improve weather forecasting.
- Establishing a cloud chamber at IITM, Pune, to study cloud dynamics and test cloud seeding methods.
Phase Two: Using Satellites and Aircraft
- In the second phase, advanced satellites and aircraft will be introduced to enhance observation capabilities.
- These tools will provide better data on atmospheric processes and support the development of weather management strategies.
Implementation Mechanism
Primary Implementing Agencies
The Mission will be led by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), and the National Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF).
- IMD: Responsible for observations, services, decision support systems, and dissemination.
- IITM: Focused on specialized field campaigns, research testbeds, process studies, and modeling.
- NCMRWF: Handles data assimilation and seamless weather prediction.
Supporting MoES Institutes
Other institutes under the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) will contribute:
- INCOIS: Focuses on ocean information services.
- NIOT: Engages in ocean technology development.
- NCPOR: Provides observations in polar regions.
Collaborating Institutes
The Mission will work with other organizations for specific mandates:
- CWC: Expertise in flood forecasting.
- GSI: Specializes in landslide studies.
- DGRE: Focuses on avalanche forecasting.
Academic and Industrial Collaboration
Strong partnerships will be established with national laboratories, academic institutions, and industries to support research and implementation.
IMD Vision-2047 Document
About:
A strategic roadmap aimed at significantly improving weather forecasting accuracy and disaster management in India by 2047.
Includes specific milestones for the short-term (2 years), medium-term (10 years by 2035), and long-term (22 years by 2047).
Key Objectives:
- 100% Detection of Severe Weather:
- Targeting complete detection of severe weather events at village and household levels by 2047.
- Achieved through advanced observational systems like satellites and radars.
- Forecast Accuracy:
- 3-Day Forecasts: 100% accuracy.
- 5-Day Forecasts: 90% accuracy.
- 7-Day Forecasts: 80% accuracy.
- 10-Day Forecasts: 70% accuracy.
- Zero Deaths from Weather Events:
- Striving to eliminate fatalities from extreme weather events.
- Ensures timely and effective early warnings for disaster preparedness and management.
Analysis: The Importance Of Advanced Weather Forecasting
Why Weather Forecasting Must Improve
Frequent Extreme Weather Events:
- In the last decade, extreme weather events have increased.
- These events show the need for better systems to predict weather.
Role of the National Monsoon Mission (2012):
- It provided a framework to predict weather over various timescales.
- However, with climate change, weather is becoming harder to predict.
Challenges Ahead:
- More accurate predictions of heavy rains, heatwaves, and rising sea levels are needed.
- This accuracy is essential to save lives, protect jobs, and avoid disruptions.
- Understanding cloudbursts and lightning, which cause many deaths, is still limited.
Mission Mausam: A Step Toward Readiness
What It Aims to Do:
- Focuses on better weather preparedness.
- Supports studying local climate patterns to improve forecasting.
Why Flexibility Is Key:
- Climate science is evolving and varies in different regions.
- Policies must adapt to new findings.
Use of AI in Weather Prediction:
- Artificial intelligence (AI) can improve weather forecasts at a lower cost.
- Though still complex, AI could help make the country more climate-smart.
Cloud Seeding and Weather Control:
- Used in countries like the US, China, and Australia.
- Still under research for effectiveness and environmental impact.
Preparing Communities for Climate Resilience
The Need for Disaster Prediction:
- Weather prediction helps, but it’s also vital to prepare for extreme events.
- Planning should include landslides, floods, and their effects on people.
Landslide Warning Systems:
- Early warning systems are expensive but necessary.
- The growing number of landslides highlights the need for such investments.
Glacial Lake Outbursts:
- Events like the Sikkim flood show the risks from glacial lakes.
- Identifying and studying vulnerable lakes is crucial to prevent disasters.
Better Urban and Infrastructure Planning
- Urban and rural planning must consider local ecology and socioeconomic factors.
- Agencies, experts, and Mission Mausam must work together.
- Such teamwork can create stronger and more effective climate strategies.