Population Dynamics: India’s Demographic Shift
Source: The world is getting older. Can India cope?, The Indian Express, November 4, 2023
- India Surpasses China: As of 2019, a United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) report projected that India was set to surpass China in population growth by 2027. This has now occurred. India is currently the world’s most populous nation.
- High Growth Regions: The report highlighted that by 2050, countries including India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Indonesia, Egypt, and the United States will experience substantial population increases. Together, these nations will contribute to more than half of the global population growth. The forecast also indicates the population in Sub-Saharan Africa will likely double by 2050.
- Will India Grey?: Contrasting with the global trend, India’s demographic presents a different scenario. The India Aging Report, 2023 released by UNFPA shows that while the global elderly population (aged 60 years and above) will double by 2050, India will also see a similar trend.
- India’s Elderly Population: In 2022, about 149 million people, or 10.5 percent of India’s population, were 60 years or older. The expectation is to see this number rising to 347 million by 2050, equating to 20.8 percent of India’s population.
- Consequences of an Aging Population: The increase in India’s elderly population is set to have far-reaching effects on healthcare, the economy, and society. The rise is notable and calls for significant planning and resources to manage the impacts efficiently.
The Challenge of Ageing Populations
- Impact on Developing Nations: The UNFPA highlights a global issue: fertility rates are falling. This issue is hitting developing countries like India a lot sooner than it did in wealthier nations. In simpler terms, people in countries such as India are having fewer babies before the nation has grown rich.
- Economic Implications: Well-off countries had more money per person when they started to age. This made it easier for them to support their older citizens. But for India, the situation is different. The economy is not as strong, and support for the ageing population is more challenging.
- A Significant Shift: In the next half-century, the number of older people in some poorer countries could double much faster than it did in the developed world. In India, the 60-plus age group will become much larger, increasing by 41% from 2021 to 2031.
- The Future Population: By 2046, India will likely have more elderly people than children under 15. This trend means there will be fewer people working, paying taxes, and contributing to the economy. It also puts extra strain on healthcare services.
Global Population Shifts and Geopolitical Futures
- Dominant Global Powers: The population decline in China suggests the United States could soon regain the title of the most populous nation. This is contingent on maintaining liberal immigration policies which support population growth.
- Impact on Geopolitical Dynamics: Richard Horton, the Lancet’s editor-in-chief, forecasts a world where India, Nigeria, China, and the U.S. will emerge as powerful nations. This prediction rests largely on the size of their working-age populations.
- Immigration and Women’s Rights: Horton emphasises the importance of immigration and women’s reproductive and sexual rights. These factors will play a crucial role as the power balance shifts globally.
- Population Decline in Asia and Europe: Projections indicate a significant decrease in population across Asia and Europe by the year 2100. Countries such as China, Thailand, Italy, and Japan are expected to experience a drastic reduction in their populations.
- Ageing Global Demographics: One trend is clear: humanity is ageing. Additionally, the global population is expected to decline. Countries like India will not only face a reduction in population but also an increase in the proportion of senior citizens.
- India’s Preparation for Demographic Changes: These demographic shifts will lead to a restructuring of international order. It is critical to question how India will adapt to its changing demographic landscape.