Source: Is Myanmar impeding India’s Act East Policy? (ORF, Mar 27, 2024)
India’s Act East Policy hinges on a stable and cooperative Myanmar. This Southeast Asian nation offers a crucial land bridge for connecting India’s Northeast with ASEAN countries.
However, Myanmar’s military takeover in 2021 has thrown a wrench into these plans. Ongoing conflict, refugee influx, and China’s growing influence are jeopardizing India’s ambitions.
This editorial analysis explores how Myanmar’s political turmoil is derailing India’s Act East Policy and the challenges India faces in navigating this complex situation.
Government Decision on Free Regime Movement (FMR) with Myanmar
- Cancellation Reason: Ensuring internal security and demographic structure of Northeastern states.
- Border Fence Initiative:Decision followed the initiation of fencing the 1,643 km-long Indo-Myanmar border.
Significance of Myanmar for India
- Geopolitical Importance:Myanmar holds strategic and economic significance for India.
- Act East Policy (AEP): Vital for India’s aspirations to increase influence in Southeast Asia.
Challenges Faced by India’s AEP
- Political Turmoil in Myanmar:Instability since the military takeover in February 2021.
- ‘Operation 1027’ Impact:Launched by three brotherhood alliances against the military Junta, hindering India’s AEP objectives.
Understanding India’s Act East Policy
Background: Prime Minister Narendra Modi rebranded the ‘Look East Policy’ to ‘Act East Policy’ in 2014. Revitalized with three primary objectives.
Primary Objectives:
- Enhance trade, investment, and cultural relations with Southeast Asia, particularly ASEAN countries.
- Stabilize India’s North-Eastern Region (NER) and create opportunities.
- Counter China’s economic and military influence in Myanmar, bilaterally and with ASEAN.
Regional Connectivity Projects:
Kaladan Multi-Modal Project (KMMP):
- Improves connectivity to India’s NER via Bangladesh and Myanmar.
- Links Kolkata port to Sittwe port in Myanmar, extending to Mizoram through highways.
India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Project (IMTTP):
- Connects Moreh in India to Mae Sot in Thailand via Myanmar.
- Establishes a land route for trade, business, education, and tourism among the three countries.
Myanmar after the 2021 Military Coup
Strategic Importance to India:
- Gateway for India’s expansion of land and maritime connectivity to Southeast Asia.
- Considered an attractive market and reliable economic partner.
Bilateral Trade Agreement: Encompasses 62 commodities under tax exemption, projecting a total merchandise trade of US $1.76 billion for 2022-2023.
Challenges Facing AEP Projects in Myanmar
Project Delays:
- KMMP highway linking Sittwe Port to Mizoram faces delays.
- IMTTP progress hindered by lack of updates from Myanmar amidst political unrest.
Impact of Political Unrest:
- Violence between Ethnic Armed Organisations (EAOs) and military Junta hampers progress.
- Control of project areas by EAOs and National Unity Government (NUG) complicates infrastructure development.
Security Implications and Counterinsurgency Efforts
Counterinsurgency Cooperation:
- Indian Army and Myanmar Junta collaborate to counter insurgent threats.
- AEP implementation expected to mitigate armed conflicts in the NER.
Security Challenges:
- Increased refugee influx poses security challenges in India’s NER, especially in Mizoram and Manipur.
- Recent attacks by insurgent groups highlight security risks along the Indo-Myanmar border.
Impact on Connectivity and Trade
Disrupted Connectivity Routes:
- Violence in Manipur disrupts Moreh-Tamu border market, essential for bilateral trade.
- Political instability in Myanmar discourages investment in NER linked to AEP.
China’s Growing Footprint in Myanmar
Strategic Significance to India:
- China’s political and economic influence in Myanmar raises concerns for India.
- Efforts to secure access to the Bay of Bengal via Myanmar amplify India’s strategic discomfort.
China’s Initiatives in Myanmar:
- Establishment of the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor.
- Setting up surveillance facilities on Myanmar’s Coco Island in the Bay of Bengal.
Concerns for India:
- China’s dominance in foreign direct investments and trade partnership with Myanmar.
- Raises concerns about India’s position in the region.
India’s Response and Strategic Challenges
Initiatives under AEP: Investment projects in Myanmar to counterbalance China’s influence.
Challenges to India’s Strategy:
- Lack of multifaceted engagement compared to China.
- Dependency on engagement solely with the military junta.
Potential Shift in Dynamics: China’s broader engagement with EAOs and NUG could gain ascendancy in Myanmar’s governmental transition.
Implications for Regional Connectivity and Counterinsurgency Efforts
Importance of India’s Engagement:
- Enhances regional connectivity and fosters growth in India’s NER.
- Counters China’s influence and mitigates insurgency.
Challenges Due to Political Instability:
- Instability in Myanmar contributes to insurgency challenges in India’s NER.
- Influx of Chin refugees adds to the complexity.
Reconsideration of India’s Strategy
Need for Strategic Rethink:
- India must reassess its strategy towards Myanmar to further its interests via the AEP.
- Balancing geopolitical and economic objectives in the region.