The Economic Survey 2024-25 highlights the critical role of rainfall in India’s agriculture, emphasizing the sector’s vulnerability to climate change, particularly erratic monsoons and drought risks affecting small-scale farmers.

It underscores the increasing importance of irrigation expansion, government initiatives like Per Drop More Crop, and the promotion of micro-irrigation systems to enhance water efficiency, boost crop yields, and mitigate the adverse effects of climate variability on agricultural productivity.

• Precipitation and the Water Cycle: Precipitation plays a vital role in the global water cycle by serving as a key source for freshwater replenishment. It is essential for maintaining various ecosystems and supporting human activities.
• Climate Change and Rainfall Patterns: The impact of climate change on rainfall patterns is significant, especially for agricultural practices that depend on stable and predictable weather conditions.
• Agricultural Vulnerability in India: Although agricultural growth volatility in India has reduced due to strategic interventions, the sector remains highly exposed to weather fluctuations. Only about 55 per cent of the net sown area benefits from irrigation, leaving a substantial portion dependent on rainfall.
• Rain-fed Agriculture and Drought Risk: A large segment of Indian agricultural land relies on rain-fed farming, making it highly sensitive to precipitation changes. More than two-thirds of the country’s agricultural land is prone to drought, with national estimates suggesting a 35 per cent probability of drought occurrences.
• Regional Variability in Drought Risk: Drought risks vary across different geographical regions in India. In dry-humid regions, the probability of drought is around 20 per cent, whereas in arid areas, it exceeds 40 per cent. This disparity highlights the need for region-specific strategies to mitigate drought risks.
• Small and Marginal Farmers’ Vulnerability: The unpredictability of monsoon patterns disproportionately affects small and marginal farmers, who account for about 85 per cent of India’s agricultural holdings. These farmers typically cultivate land smaller than 2 hectares, making them particularly vulnerable to climate variability.
• Increase in Dry Spells: Climate change has intensified weather variability, leading to a 27 per cent rise in dry spells during the summer monsoon season from 1981 to 2011, compared to the period between 1951 and 1980.
• Rise in Rainfall Deficiencies: The frequency of years with deficient rainfall has increased across India, with a larger number of subdivisions experiencing rainfall deficits. This trend points to the growing frequency and geographical spread of droughts.
• Intensification of Wet Spells: While dry spells have increased, short but intense wet spells have also become more common. In central India, the frequency of extreme daily rainfall events exceeding 150 mm rose by about 75 per cent between 1950 and 2015.
• Climate Change and Agricultural Productivity: Various studies have analyzed the relationship between rainfall and crop yields at the district level across India during the kharif season. These studies found a strong correlation between major rainfall shortfalls and substantial crop yield losses, a phenomenon known as lower tail dependence.
• Projected Impact of Temperature and Rainfall Changes: Research indicates that an increase of 2°C in annual temperature and a 7 per cent rise in annual rainfall by 2099 could lead to an 8-12 per cent decline in Indian agricultural productivity. Heat stress has been found to adversely affect crop yields, with worsening effects over time.
• Droughts and Heat Waves vs. Other Weather Events: Studies suggest that droughts and heat waves have a more severe impact on agricultural productivity compared to floods and cold waves in India. To mitigate these challenges, it is necessary to expand irrigation coverage and promote heat- and water-resistant crop varieties.
• Expansion of Irrigation Coverage: Between FY16 and FY21, India saw a notable increase in irrigation coverage and intensity. The irrigated area expanded from 49.3 per cent to 55 per cent of the gross cropped area (GCA), while irrigation intensity rose from 144.2 per cent to 154.5 per cent.
• State-wise Irrigation Disparities: States like Punjab (98 per cent), Haryana (94 per cent), Uttar Pradesh (84 per cent), and Telangana (86 per cent) have high irrigation coverage. In contrast, states such as Jharkhand and Assam have less than 20 per cent irrigation coverage, highlighting the need for enhanced irrigation and water management practices.
• Government Initiatives in Irrigation and Water Conservation: The government has prioritized irrigation expansion and water conservation. Since FY16, it has implemented the Per Drop More Crop (PDMC) initiative under the Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayee Yojana (PMKSY) to enhance water efficiency.
• Financial Assistance for Micro-Irrigation: Under PDMC, small and marginal farmers receive financial aid covering 55 per cent of project costs, while other farmers receive 45 per cent assistance for micro-irrigation installations.
• Fund Allocation and Implementation: Between FY16 and FY25 (up to Dec. 2024), ₹21,968.75 crore was allocated for PDMC, covering 95.58 lakh hectares, marking a 104.67 per cent increase compared to the pre-PDMC period.
• Micro-Irrigation Fund (MIF): The MIF provides states with 2 per cent interest subvention on loans for innovative irrigation projects. Approved loans total ₹4709 crore, with ₹3640 crore disbursed so far.
• Rain-fed Area Development (RAD) Program: Implemented since FY15 under the National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture (NMSA), RAD focuses on conserving natural resources alongside farming systems. From FY22, it was merged into the Rashtriya Krishi Vikas Yojana (RKVY), receiving ₹1,858.41 crore and covering 8 lakh hectares.
• Water Body Rejuvenation Initiatives: A study by the A.T.E Chandra Foundation suggests that community-led, technology-enabled models can help rejuvenate water bodies, thereby enhancing rural water security.
• Technological Tools for Water Restoration: The Composite Land-use Restoration and Assessment Tool (CLART GIS) and the AVNI Gramin app aid in identifying and monitoring water bodies for groundwater recharge through geo-tagged images and farmer-level verification.

More On Economic Survey 2024-25

Economic Survey 2024-25: Financial Sector Regulators
Economic Survey 2024-25: Rural Financial Institutions
Economic Survey 2024-25: Development Financial Institutions

More Notes On Agriculture

• Cropping Patterns In India And Their Evolution Over Decades
• MSP Policies Under Scrutiny: Farmer Demands And Economic Implications
• Understanding The Minimum Support Price (MSP) System
• National Agriculture Market (e-NAM)
• Impact Of Climate Change On Agriculture
• Challenges Of Indian Agriculture
• Policies That Can Boost Natural Farming In India
• Future Of Indian Agriculture
• Climate Smart Agriculture In India
• Precision Farming