The Caspian Sea is rapidly losing water, with its level dropping by two meters in the last 18 years, and projections suggesting a further decline of 18 meters by 2100. This drastic reduction threatens local ecosystems, disrupts trade routes, and endangers industries, raising concerns that the Caspian could face the same fate as the Aral Sea unless urgent international intervention is undertaken.
Causes and Consequences of the Caspian Sea’s Decline
Rapid Decline in Water Levels
- Alarming Trend: Over the past 18 years, the Caspian Sea has lost two meters in water levels.
- Projected Loss: If current trends continue, the sea level could fall by another 18 meters by 2100.
- Impact on Surface Area: Between 2005 and 2023, the sea’s surface area has reduced by over 30,000 square kilometers.
Impact On Ecosystems
- Caspian Seal Population: Once numbering one million, the seal population has plummeted to just 70,000, with thousands of dead seals washing up on Kazakhstan’s shores annually.
- Biodiversity Threats: Falling water levels may lead to mass deaths of swans, sturgeons, and seals, worsening the ecological crisis.
Disruptions To Trade And Energy Sectors
- Shipping Restrictions: The retreating shoreline has made it difficult for cargo ships to access key ports like Aktau, a crucial hub in the Trans-Caspian transport corridor.
- Dredging Project: Kazakhstan approved a $84 million dredging project in December 2024 to keep Aktau operational.
- Oil Industry Impact: The shoaling has restricted transport ships to 75% of their maximum loading capacity, affecting access to the Kashagan oil field, one of Kazakhstan’s largest energy reserves.
Parallels With The Aral Sea Crisis
- Ecological Collapse: Scientists fear that the Caspian Sea may follow the same path as the Aral Sea, which nearly disappeared due to excessive water diversion.
- Potential Consequences: The Caspian could split into several smaller water bodies, reducing water quality and devastating marine life.
Key Environmental And Climatic Implications
Climate Regulation
- Regional Climate Impact: The Caspian Sea plays a critical role in stabilizing Central Asia’s climate.
- Long-Term Effects: Continued decline may alter precipitation patterns as far as the Pacific region.
Hydrological Factors
- Lowest Levels in Centuries: The Caspian currently stands at minus 29.5 meters relative to the World Ocean, the lowest level in 400 years.
- Volga River’s Role: The Volga River, which supplies 90% of the Caspian’s freshwater, has suffered reduced flow due to extensive dam construction.
Invasive Species Threat
- Dinophyte Algae Spread: Scientists have detected the harmful algal species Ceratium tripos var. balticum in the Middle Caspian Sea.
- Oxygen Depletion: This invasive algae can trigger algal blooms, reducing oxygen levels and endangering marine biodiversity.
Geographical and Strategic Significance of the Caspian Sea
Location and Borders
- Geographical Position: Situated between Europe and Asia, the Caspian Sea is the world’s largest inland water body.
- Neighboring Countries: It is bordered by Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Iran, Azerbaijan, and Russia.
Economic and Ecological Importance
- Resource-Rich Region: The Caspian is rich in oil, natural gas, and biodiversity, making it a crucial economic zone.
- Salinity Levels: With a salinity of 1.2%, the sea is saltier than freshwater lakes but less saline than the ocean.
Major River Inflows
- Primary Freshwater Source: The Volga River, Europe’s longest river, contributes the most water.
- Other Important Rivers: Ural, Terek, Kura, Aras, Sulak, Samur, and Atrek Rivers also feed into the Caspian.
Lessons From The Aral Sea Catastrophe
Historical Context
- Once a Major Water Body: The Aral Sea was once the fourth-largest inland water body in the world.
- Devastation Due to Human Activity: Large-scale irrigation projects in the Soviet era diverted water from its main sources, leading to its near disappearance.
Key Takeaways for the Caspian
- Sustainability is Critical: Overuse and poor water management can accelerate the Caspian Sea’s decline.
- Urgent Conservation Needed: Proactive measures must be taken to prevent the Caspian from suffering the same fate as the Aral Sea.
The Tehran Convention And Conservation Efforts
About the Tehran Convention
- Legal Agreement: Signed in 2003 and enforced in 2006, the Tehran Convention is the first legally binding regional framework for protecting the Caspian Sea.
- Participating Nations: Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Turkmenistan.
Key Objectives
- Pollution Control: Aims to protect the Caspian from industrial and environmental pollution.
- Marine Ecosystem Protection: Focuses on the conservation and restoration of marine biodiversity.
- Sustainable Resource Management: Encourages responsible use of marine and energy resources.
- Environmental Monitoring: Calls for research, data sharing, and impact assessments.
Principles of the Convention
- Precautionary Principle: Preventive actions must be taken against environmental harm.
- Polluter Pays Principle: Those responsible for pollution bear the cost of damages.
- Information Exchange: Ensures transparency and cooperation among Caspian nations.