The Arctic region, undergoing rapid ecological shifts due to global warming, has captured India’s attention as it presents a spectrum of new possibilities and challenges. These encompass areas such as scientific exploration, climate studies, energy stability, acquisition of strategic minerals, navigation, and forging alliances with native Arctic communities.
India’s connection to Polar Regions, cemented by scientific research and participation in governance structures, has established its stake in the Arctic. Moreover, India’s escalating prominence in global affairs further underscores this engagement.
The importance of the Arctic to India pivots around three primary axes. First, scientific research coupled with climate change and environmental studies. Second, the economic aspect and human resources, considering the potential commercial opportunities the region presents. Lastly, the geopolitical and strategic significance of the region in the global landscape.
Scientific Research, Climate Change and Environment
Monsoons
The transformations taking place in the Arctic remain largely enigmatic, but their impact on global weather, climate, and ecosystems, including the monsoons in India, is undeniably significant.
India receives more than 70 percent of its annual precipitation during the monsoons. The country’s agriculture, which serves as the primary livelihood for approximately 58 percent of the population and contributes around 20 percent to the GDP, relies heavily on the monsoons for its sustenance.
Hence, it comes as no surprise that one of the key focuses of the Indian Arctic Programme is to engage in ongoing monitoring of the Arctic fjords and coastal waters. This research aims to deepen our understanding of how climate change impacts these areas and how it may be interconnected with phenomena such as the Indian monsoon.
Also Read | India’s Engagement In The Arctic
Rising Sea Level
Greenland is the primary source of land-ice loss in the region, responsible for 51 percent of the Arctic’s total. This significant melting of land ice in the Arctic greatly contributes to the global rise in sea levels. Its consequences have far-reaching implications, particularly for India’s 1,300 island territories and maritime features, as well as the well-being of its 1.3 billion inhabitants.
Himalayas
The Himalayas, often called the ‘third pole’ due to their extensive freshwater reserves, are closely tied to the Arctic despite their distance. Research on Arctic meltdown aids scientists in understanding the process behind glacial melts in the Himalayas.
In India, these mountains are vital, sourcing the country’s primary rivers like the Ganga and Brahmaputra. Nearly 600 million people depend on the Ganga basin, while the Brahmaputra basin supports about 177 million people.
Additionally, these river basins contribute to over 40% of India’s GDP.
India’s track record in scientific research in Antarctica and in the Himalayas, the ‘third pole’, will be advantageous for Indian scientists in comprehending the Arctic’s dynamics. Therefore, studying the Arctic holds great significance for Indian scientists.
India has a good history of doing scientific research in Antarctica and the Himalayas. This experience will be helpful for Indian scientists when they study the Arctic.
Also Read | India’s Arctic Policy
Economic And Human Resources
Mineral Resources And Hydrocarbons
The Arctic region boasts abundant deposits of coal, gypsum, and diamonds, along with significant reserves of zinc, lead, placer gold, and quartz. Remarkably, Greenland alone holds approximately a quarter of the world’s rare-earth reserves.
The Arctic is home to abundant hydrocarbon resources. According to a US Geological Survey (USGS) assessment, this region could potentially be the largest unexplored area for petroleum on Earth.
It is estimated to hold about 30 percent of the world’s undiscovered natural gas and 13 percent of the world’s undiscovered oil. This makes the Arctic a treasure trove of valuable energy reserves yet to be tapped into.
As the ice continues to melt, these valuable resources are becoming increasingly accessible and economically viable for extraction.
India ranks as the world’s third-largest consumer of energy, importing 83 percent of its oil and ranking as the fourth-largest importer of gas.
India’s energy basket currently comprises only 6 percent of gas, one of the lowest percentages globally, in contrast to the world average of 24 percent. However, there is a targeted increase to 15 percent by 2030. In this context, the Arctic region holds promising potential to address India’s energy security needs and bridge the gap in strategic and rare-earth minerals.
Geopolitical And Strategic
The US
The US has six military bases in the Arctic region. One is in Greenland and five are in Alaska. The Arctic is important to the US because of growing competition with Russia and China, as well as the opening of new shipping routes and access to oil and other resources. This has led to increased interest and activity in the region.
The US Department of Defense believes the Arctic could be used for an attack on the US. The report also mentions that Russia and China are becoming more active in the region. Furthermore, it sees the Arctic as a strategic pathway for its forces between the Indo-Pacific and Europe.
China
Rising temperatures in the Arctic, leading to melting ice, are escalating geopolitical tensions to levels reminiscent of the Cold War era. In its Arctic Policy White Paper released in January 2018, China referred to itself as a ‘Near-Arctic State’.
Furthermore, China dubbed the trans-Arctic shipping lanes as the Polar Silk Road, marking it as a third logistics pathway for their Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
The United States has vehemently opposed China’s claims, asserting that there are only Arctic and Non-Arctic states, with no third category. Under this definition, the U.S. states that China has no inherent rights in the Arctic.
China’s investments in the Arctic are noteworthy, with major financial commitments in infrastructure and energy sectors reaching a hefty sum of US$ 90 billion, in the period between 2012 and 2017.
Moreover, China stands alongside Russia as the only nation currently building nuclear icebreakers.
Russia
The emergence of new shipping routes and the prospect of enhanced resource extraction have led to a power struggle in the region, with the U.S., China, Russia, and NATO all seeking to establish their influence. The ongoing crisis has further fueled the militarisation of the Arctic, a process that has been underway for several years.
In 2018, large-scale exercises, namely Russia’s Exercise Vostok and NATO’s Trident Juncture, were conducted, marking the biggest military drills since the Cold War. Exercise Vostok saw China’s participation, while all 29 NATO member nations (as of that time) participated in Trident Juncture, including Sweden and other recent contenders for NATO membership. This event also witnessed the first deployment of a U.S. Navy aircraft carrier above the Arctic Circle since 1991.
The U.S. reinstated the Second Fleet in May 2018, which was originally established in 1950 (and decommissioned in September 2011) to counter Soviet naval forces in the North Atlantic.
Fast forward to 2021, Russia’s Umka-2021 Exercise saw, for the first time, three ballistic missiles with nuclear submarines rise through the Arctic ice. In 2022, NATO’s Exercise Cold Response, led by Norway and focusing on air and sea defenses, saw widespread participation.
NATO’s exercise is viewed by Moscow as a significant threat. Russia aims to retain its status as the sole military power in the Arctic.
Changing Dynamics In The Arctic Region
In March 2022, a protest against Russia’s military actions in Ukraine led to a unique scenario. Seven members of the Arctic Council (AC) suspended their participation. This marked a major event, as it was the first time such an action had occurred since the AC’s establishment in 1996.
Due to this, Russia, the Chair of the AC from 2021 to 2023, faced substantial backlash. In May 2022, the President and Prime Minister of Finland expressed their views on this matter. They suggested that entering NATO would provide additional security for their country. This prompted Finland to immediately apply for NATO membership.
Following Finland’s decision, Sweden also decided to join NATO. These developments are expected to strengthen NATO’s naval capabilities in the Baltic Sea significantly.
However, the inclusion of Finland and Sweden in NATO is expected to bring about significant changes in the Arctic. The coming years may witness increased military presence and competitive disputes, altering the dynamics of the Arctic region.
Disputed Territories In The Arctic Region
The Arctic region is marked by a series of ongoing territorial disagreements among the Arctic States, largely driven by strategic objectives and differing interpretations of geographical boundaries. For instance, the United States finds itself engaged in a dispute regarding the Continental Shelf with both Canada and Russia. These two nations are also embroiled in their disagreement over the same issue.
The United States and Canada are grappling with the complex task of defining their maritime borders, a matter further complicated by their conflicting views on the North West Passage—a waterway that Canada, much like Russia’s stance on the NSR, regards as part of its internal waters.
Canada and Denmark have also been disputing the ownership of Hans Island for nearly half a century, although recent indications suggest a resolution might be on the horizon.