Is India losing its stance in South Asia? The question frequently arises, especially when events viewed as unfavourable from India’s perspective, such as the recent request from the Maldives for military withdrawal, take place.
- A Sentimental Debate: The discourse around South Asia in India is often sentimental, self-focused and fails to consider the dynamic regional shifts.
- Differing Perspectives: Hardliners express their discontent when neighbouring nations question India’s assumed dominance in the region. On the other hand, pacifists blame India itself when these nations pivot away.
- Beyond Tough or Nice Policies: Some advocates demand that India adopt a more assertive stance, while others suggest a friendlier approach. However, neither hardline nor lenient policies can adequately manage India’s regional challenges.
- Structural Challenges: Deep-rooted internal, regional, and external elements create discord in South Asia. This structural complexity affects India’s position and needs to be considered in its foreign policies.
Nostalgia And The British Raj
India’s longing for its past is tied to the British Raj’s legacy. That time shaped South Asia into a united geopolitical power. It made neighbouring regions into protectorates and buffer zones. However, this reality faded away with the exit of the British from the Subcontinent.
- The Impact of Partition: The unity of the Subcontinent was broken by the Partition. It was based on religious differences. This event led to new sovereignties and left unresolved territorial issues. These disputes hinder the region’s progress today. Even with grand ideas of regional cooperation and references to shared history and civilization, the bitter aftermath of Partition remains a hindrance.
- Pakistan’s Stance on Kashmir: Pakistan views the Kashmir issue as an unresolved part of the Partition process. It refuses to put it aside, even temporarily. The aim is to foster a positive, limited engagement with India. Additionally, it intends to support regional integration in South Asia under the SAARC.
- Impact of Partition: Political partition was mirrored by economic partition. This was due to developmental choices by India and its neighbours towards self-sufficiency. Borders became more secure and acted as commercial barriers.
- Shift towards Globalisation: Since the 1990s, the region has been leaning towards globalisation. As a result, regional economic cooperation has increased. However, the pace and intensity fall short of potential.
- Pakistan’s Reluctance for Economic Cooperation: Pakistan remains unprepared for economic cooperation with India. Its ongoing focus on geo-economics does not encompass commercial engagement with India.
The Change In Political Attitude
At first, regional elites showed political respect towards Delhi – a remnant from the reign of the Raj. However, this didn’t last for long.
- Realisation of Independence: Small neighbouring countries quickly realised that independent India was not the same as the British Raj – a part of the world’s leading power. They saw that they had the freedom to align with or oppose Delhi.
- Understanding India’s Limitations: India, despite its size, cannot force its policies upon these nations. They have their own decision-making power.
- The Ineffectiveness of Influence Tactics: India’s attempts to intimidate or charm these countries into agreement, be it through force or cultural kinship, proved to be ineffective.
India’s Perceived Regional Aspirations
India’s regional visions may be well-received in Delhi, but they often face scepticism in the neighbouring regions. Both the nationalist concept of “Akhand Bharat,” or Greater India, and the liberal idea of a united Subcontinent are viewed with suspicion. Neighbouring elites perceive a conflict between India’s regional leadership and their national sovereignty.
India’s Influence on Neighboring Politics: India, intentionally or not, has significant influence over the domestic politics in neighbouring countries. Competing factions of neighbouring elites often find themselves divided. One group might expect India’s intervention in its political disputes. Meanwhile, the other group labels India’s involvement as hegemonic. Those elites trying to maintain a reasonable relationship with India are charged with sacrificing national sovereignty.
The Fallacy Of India’s Dominance
The notion that post-partition India could maintain dominance over the Subcontinent, similar to the Raj era, was a misperception. Partition weakened India’s power comparative to the Raj, reducing its chances of upholding the previous order.
- Pakistan’s Strategic Alliances: To counterbalance India, Pakistan sought alliances. It aligned with global powers like the US and China.
- The Proxy War in Afghanistan: The Soviet’s intervention in Afghanistan turned the region into a battleground. It involved Western powers, Middle Eastern states, Russia, and China, intensifying the conflict.
- The Aftermath and its Consequences: The fallout of this war devastated the border regions between Pakistan and Afghanistan. It drastically changed the geopolitical landscape of the Subcontinent.
- India’s Perspective on China’s Growth: India is right to be concerned about China’s rapid growth. China, being the second largest economy and military power in the world, is expanding its influence in the Subcontinent. India can’t prevent China from becoming a significant player in the region.
- Impact of Western Decline: As the Western presence in the Subcontinent falls, China’s strategic importance in South Asia is growing. Economic, military, and technological factors play a significant role in this. Over time, India will face even more challenging situations due to this.
- Rise of Middle Eastern Powerhouses: China is not alone in growing its footprint in South Asia. Middle Eastern countries like Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates are also emerging as strong influences in the region. Their economic and military capabilities are on the rise.
Way Forward
The Subcontinent is undergoing significant changes in its international relations, with intensified stress on its western and eastern frontiers. The western border sees an escalating conflict between the Taliban and the Pakistan army. Meanwhile, in the east, alliances between ethnic armed groups and pro-democracy forces challenge the Burmese army’s reign over its vast northern territories.
These developments indicate a rapidly evolving Subcontinent, quite different from what we had in the mid-20th century. Geographic, political and economic aspects of “regions” change over time, and “South Asia” is not immune to this transformation.
The critical issue is not whether India is “losing South Asia,” but how it can make gains in this changing region. With its capabilities, India has the potential to safeguard its interests and increase its influence in the neighbourhood. However, for successful implementation, India needs to let go of its fixation with the old South Asia.
Source: C Raja Mohan writes | Is India ‘losing’ South Asia? That’s not the question (The Indian Express, December 27, 2023)