Source: What is the value of attributing extreme events to climate change? (The Hindu, May 23, 2024)
Key Points
- Attribution science is linking climate change to extreme weather events. This is a significant shift from past understanding and has legal, policy, and financial implications.
- Scientific advancements allow attributing some events to climate change, but challenges remain. Uncertainties, data limitations, and methodological considerations require ongoing development.
- Attribution is crucial for the ‘loss and damage’ (L&D) process. L&D funding helps developing countries address climate impacts. Defining which countries are “particularly vulnerable” relies on attribution.
- The case of India raises questions about L&D eligibility. India’s vulnerability might not qualify for current L&D funding models.
- Legal and policy implications are significant. Attribution reports as evidence in court cases and informing climate policies are key considerations.
- Data challenges and ethical questions exist. Data limitations, the role of natural variability, and the consequences of assigning blame require careful consideration.
The evolving science of climate change attribution has begun to pinpoint the fingerprints of global warming on extreme weather events. This shift in understanding holds significant implications for legal liability, policy frameworks, and the financial responsibilities of richer nations in addressing climate-related “loss and damage.”
- Evolution of Attribution Science: A few decades ago, the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) stated that individual weather events could not be linked to climate change. Today, the science has progressed, and researchers can now attribute some extreme events to climate change, despite ongoing uncertainties.
- Challenges in Attribution Science: There are still many scientific and data challenges in this field. Researchers use various methods to determine attribution, raising questions about whether this science is advanced enough to be used in courts and international discussions. These methods are being examined for their potential to estimate the historical climate-related liabilities of wealthy nations and the legal responsibilities of governments and corporations for events like floods and droughts.
- Importance of Extreme-Event Attribution: Experts believe that attribution is vital for the ‘loss and damage’ (L&D) process, although no formal cost-benefit analysis has been done. L&D has become an important topic in climate talks under the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change, especially for economically developing countries that are highly vulnerable to climate impacts. Defining which countries are ‘particularly vulnerable’ is crucial for L&D funding.
- The Case of India: India, a tropical developing country, is highly vulnerable to climate change impacts. However, it might not qualify for L&D funding. This raises a key question: should climate finance and green funds focus solely on adaptation and mitigation, or should they also include separate L&D funds? The developed world resists the idea of being held legally responsible for extreme events, fearing a surge of lawsuits.
- Legal and Policy Implications: Understanding whether attribution reports can serve as evidence of culpability in court is crucial. A recent report on heatwaves in Asia highlights this issue, demonstrating the need for reliable attribution science in legal and policy contexts.
- Heatwaves and Climate Change: Recently, climate scientists from World Weather Attribution (WWA) reported that climate change has made heatwaves in Asia 45 times more likely.
- Method of Attribution: To understand this, scientists compare the conditions during heatwaves with a hypothetical world without climate change. When data is insufficient, they use climate models excluding greenhouse gas emissions. When enough data is available, they compare current conditions with past periods of minimal human impact.
- Data Challenges: Data is often lacking, especially for rainfall and extreme events. Climate models struggle to accurately capture normal and extreme rainfall but are better with temperatures, though only at regional scales.
- Moral and Practical Questions: Even if reliable hyperlocal attribution becomes possible, moral questions remain. What actions should follow? How should governments respond if an area is deemed a hotspot for extreme events? Attribution science must be reliable to inform these decisions.
- Selecting Extreme Events: Choosing which extreme events to attribute poses another challenge. WWA used different regional scales and definitions for Asian heatwaves. Natural factors like El Niño and human activities like urbanization can exacerbate heatwaves, complicating attribution.
- Different Questions, Different Answers: The questions scientists ask affect the results. For example, asking if climate change amplified a heatwave’s intensity or altered its frequency can yield different answers. WWA used multiple approaches, noting that differences in results might not matter in court.
- Considering Impacts: The impact of extreme events depends on the event itself and the vulnerability and exposure of the population. Financial consequences are influenced by multiple factors. Should attribution focus only on the event or also consider impacts? This question is crucial for reliable L&D negotiations.
- International Financial Aspects: Governments need agreements on historical responsibilities to fund developing countries, close adaptation gaps, build adaptation capacity, and finance mitigation. While infinite resources would make attribution a purely scientific challenge, the real world requires a cost-benefit analysis to define its role in climate action.