Skip to content
Home » Editorials » The Unsustainable Future Of The Amazon Region

The Unsustainable Future Of The Amazon Region


The Amazon rainforest, often referred to as the ‘lungs of the Earth,’ is under increasing threat from various factors. This editorial analysis delves into the mechanisms behind these threats, focusing on forest fires and climate phenomena like El Niño and the Atlantic dipole. It also highlights the role of global warming in exacerbating these issues and emphasizes the responsibility of each country and individual in mitigating its effects.

The Climate Crisis And Its Impact

Severity of the Current Drought

  • The Amazon is experiencing a record-breaking drought predicted to last until mid-2024.
  • Manaus city has recorded the lowest water levels in 121 years.
  • Large portions of the Amazon River’s bed are now visible due to the drastically low water levels.

Impact On Marine Life

  • Over 150 dolphins have perished in a lake where water temperatures soared to 39°C, which is 2°C higher than the average human body temperature.

Impact On Human Populations

  • Communities along the Amazonian rivers are isolated and struggling.
  • These populations have lost their livelihoods and are deprived of basic necessities.

The Three Simultaneous Droughts

  • This year, the Amazon region has been hit by three types of droughts at once.
  • Nearly the entire Amazon region is affected.

Forecast For Late 2023 To Early 2024

  • The forecast for November 2023 through January 2024 predicts drought across almost the entire region.
  • Some expected rainfall in Peru may slightly improve water levels in the Amazon River.
  • However, the larger region is still at risk of drought stress and forest fires.

Impact Of Eastern El Niño

  • The eastern El Niño is a phenomenon driven by warm water in the eastern part of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  • The “Godzilla” El Niño event of 2015 is an example.
  • In 2015, the ocean temperature was even higher than it is today.
  • Evidence of the eastern El Niño’s strength is seen in the destructive 250-km/hour winds of Hurricane Otis that wrecked Acapulco.
  • This phenomenon influences both the northern and southern parts of the Amazon region.
  • The northern Amazon experiences drought during an eastern El Niño.
  • Similarly, the southern part is affected too, visible in the 2015-2016 forest fires in Brazil’s state of Acre.
  • Record low water levels have been observed in the Amazon tributaries in the southern part of the basin, including the Madeira River.
  • Due to these low water levels, Brazil had to stop electricity generation entirely at the Santo Antônio Dam, its fourth largest hydropower plant.

The Rise Of Central El Niño

  • The eastern Pacific’s hot water is spreading to the central part of the ocean. This phenomenon is known as the central El Niño.
  • Significant central El Niños happened in 1982 and 1997.
  • Central El Niño triggers severe drought in northern Amazon.
  • Roraima, a state on Brazil’s border with Venezuela, has been severely affected by forest fires during these events.
  • The 1997 Roraima fire burned around 1.25 million hectares of forest.
  • The 1982 El Niño caused more than just tree deaths in the Amazon.
  • Over 200,000 people perished in Ethiopia and neighboring African countries due to drought conditions.
  • The 1995 IPCC report suggested a change in the global climate system resulting in more frequent El Niños since 1975.
  • The 2007 IPCC report confirmed that global warming will cause “El Niño-like conditions” more frequently.
  • The increase in global warming and associated impacts change the political and moral context of climate change.
  • Every country and individual’s responsibility can now be quantified.
  • The central Pacific Ocean water’s odds to return to a “normal” temperature are predicted to be nearly zero until January-March 2024.
  • A 50% chance of normal temperature is not expected until May-July 2024.

The Atlantic Dipole

  • The Atlantic Dipole is a specific type of drought that impacts the Amazon.
  • This phenomena occurs when warm water accumulates in the North Atlantic Ocean, while colder water is present in the South Atlantic.
  • The presence of an Atlantic Dipole leads to drought in the southwestern Amazon.
  • The droughts of 2005 and 2010 were caused by this condition.
  • Forest fires in Acre during 2005 and 2010 are evidence of the Atlantic Dipole’s impact.
  • The current Atlantic Dipole is expected to persist until June 2024 at the earliest.

Climate Forecast For The Amazon Until 2100

Forest Fires Amid El Niño

  • In 2015, El Niño heightened forest fires, not including wildfires.
  • Forest fires grow in size and frequency amid dry and hot conditions.
  • The spread of both legal and illegal logging significantly contributes to these fires.

The Amazon’s Carbon Stores

  • The Amazon rainforest holds massive amounts of carbon in its trees and soil.
  • This carbon stock is a latent bomb, capable of major emissions unexpectedly.

The IPCC Report On Carbon Emission

  • The IPCC’s latest report highlights human activity as the primary carbon emitter.
  • Annually, human activity, mainly fossil fuels and deforestation, releases around 12 billion tons of carbon.
  • Unintentional changes, such as forest fires or warming oceans, could drastically increase these emissions.

The Amazon’s Role In Global Warming

  • The Amazon plays a central role in this carbon emission issue.
  • The Pan-Amazon region stores roughly 80 billion tons of carbon in vegetation and 90 billion in the soil’s top meter.
  • Additionally, around 250 billion tons of carbon reside in soil one to eight meters deep.
  • The release of even a small fraction of this carbon, due to dying forests or fires, could push the global climate past a tipping point.

What Needs To Be Done?

Deforestation And Governance

  • Brazil’s Ministry of Environment and Climate Change, under the administration from January 2023, is trying hard to fight illegal deforestation.
  • However, there’s a political contradiction as other sections of the government pursue pro-deforestation projects.

Impact Of Construction Projects

  • Infrastructure projects, particularly new roads, are major drivers of deforestation.
  • The proposed “reconstruction” of Highway BR-319 could drastically affect the largely untouched central Amazonia.

Legalisation Of Land Claims

  • Another key factor is the constant legal recognition of land claims on government land.
  • This creates a perpetual cycle of land invasions and online “land grabbing”.
  • The problem is amplified by the Rural Environmental Registry (CAR) established by Brazil’s 2012 Forest Code.

Counterproductive Plans And Policies

  • Despite discussions on controlling deforestation, current plans and policies actually promote it.
  • This is clear in both the case of road construction and the legalization of land claims.

Source: Amazon region hit by trio of droughts in grim snapshot of the century to come (The Conversation, November 22, 2023)

Recent Environment Notes