India’s Agriculture Exports Trade Trends

India’s agricultural exports have grown by 6.5% in 2024, outpacing the overall merchandise export growth. However, rising imports of farm produce, particularly edible oils and pulses, have led to a narrowing trade surplus, reflecting shifting global price trends and domestic production challenges.

India’s Top Exports in $ MN

Category	2022-23 ($ MN)	2023-24 ($ MN)	Apr-Dec 2023 ($ MN)	Apr-Dec 2024 ($ MN)
Marine products	8,077.98	7,372.00	5,852.32	5,678.65
Basmati rice	4,787.65	5,843.30	3,971.13	4,322.59
Non-basmati rice	6,356.71	4,573.41	3,347.46	4,404.98
Spices	3,785.36	4,248.56	2,909.24	3,158.63
Buffalo meat	3,193.69	3,742.54	2,758.42	2,927.14
Tobacco	1,213.39	1,449.54	1,110.56	1,530.59
Sugar	5,770.83	2,824.74	1,990.20	1,476.44
Fruits & Vegetables	1,791.05	2,037.58	1,362.94	1,348.73
Processed F&V	1,417.59	1,624.22	1,149.56	1,136.09
Coffee	1,146.18	1,286.28	876.84	1,247.41
Oil meals	1,601.72	1,713.98	1,227.04	1,017.14
Oilseeds	1,337.69	1,437.02	1,031.50	1,009.38
Castor oil	1,265.64	1,071.55	771.40	854.52
Raw cotton	781.43	1,116.52	626.29	574.02
Wheat	1,520.46	56.74	35.35	1.44
Other cereals	1,194.07	517.79	454.60	191.29
TOTAL	53,153.55	48,821.67	35,195.24	37,479.83

Trends in Agricultural Trade

Growth in Exports:

India’s agricultural exports increased from $35.2 billion (April-December 2023) to $37.5 billion (April-December 2024), a 6.5% rise.
This exceeded the 1.9% growth in overall merchandise exports.

Rise in Imports:

Agricultural imports surged 18.7%, from $24.6 billion to $29.3 billion.
India’s total merchandise imports rose by 7.4%, making agricultural imports a major contributor to rising trade imbalance.

Declining Trade Surplus:

The agricultural trade surplus reduced from $10.6 billion (April-December 2023-24) to $8.2 billion (April-December 2024-25).
This marks a continued downward trend in India’s agricultural trade balance.

India’s Top Imports in $ MN

Category	2022-23 ($ MN)	2023-24 ($ MN)	Apr-Dec 2023 ($ MN)	Apr-Dec 2024 ($ MN)
Vegetable oils	20,837.7	14,871.66	11,638.03	13,518.96
Pulses	1,943.89	3,746.78	2,467.93	3,789.75
Fresh fruits	2,483.95	2,734.97	2,032.64	2,230.2
Cashew	1,805.67	1,431.39	1,193.04	1,414.36
Spices	1,336.65	1,455.57	1,123.81	1,220.61
Raw cotton	1,438.69	598.66	498.81	918.69
Natural rubber	937.6	739.18	554.15	875.7
TOTAL	35,686.2	32,870.03	24,641.45	29,251.41

Fluctuations In Agricultural Trade Surplus

Historical Trends:

India has been a net exporter of agricultural products, but the trade surplus has fluctuated significantly.
Peak surplus: $27.7 billion in 2013-14.
Decline: Fell to $8.1 billion in 2016-17.
Recovery: Increased to $20.2 billion in 2020-21.
Current trend: Reduced to $16 billion in 2023-24 and is expected to shrink further.

Impact of Global Prices:

The FAO food price index fell from 119.1 (2013-14) to 96.4 (2019-20), reducing India’s export competitiveness.
Post-pandemic supply disruptions and the Russia-Ukraine war pushed the index to 133.1 (2021-22) and 140.6 (2022-23), increasing export revenues.
With prices easing to 121.5 (2023-24) and 123.4 (2024-25), exports have moderated.

Key Drivers of Agricultural Exports

Declining Exports:

Marine products: Dropped from $8.1 billion (2022-23) to $7.4 billion (2023-24).
Sugar: Fell sharply from $5.8 billion (2022-23) to $2.8 billion (2023-24).
Wheat: Exports plummeted from $2.1 billion (2021-22) to nearly negligible levels due to government restrictions.

Sustained or Growing Exports:

Rice: Non-basmati exports remain robust despite regulatory curbs.
Basmati rice, spices, coffee, and tobacco: Expected to hit record highs in 2024-25.
External supply shocks: Drought in Brazil and typhoons in Vietnam have boosted Indian coffee exports.
Crop failures in Brazil and Zimbabwe have increased demand for Indian tobacco.

Key Drivers of Agricultural Imports

Edible Oils:

The largest import category.
Expected to be the highest in 2024-25 after peaking at $19 billion (2021-22) and $20.8 billion (2022-23) due to Ukraine war-induced price surges.

Pulses:

Imports declined between 2015-16 ($3.9 billion) and 2022-23 (average $1.7 billion) due to increased domestic production.
A poor domestic harvest in 2023-24 is expected to push 2024-25 imports above $5 billion for the first time.

Spices:

India is both an exporter and importer of spices.
In 2023-24, imports of pepper (34,028 tonnes) and cardamom (9,084 tonnes) exceeded exports (17,890 tonnes and 7,449 tonnes respectively).
India remains a dominant exporter of chilli, cumin, turmeric, coriander, fennel, and mint products.

Cotton:

India’s Bt cotton revolution made it the world’s second-largest exporter after the US.
However, exports have sharply declined from $4.3 billion (2011-12) to $781.4 million (2022-23) and $1.1 billion (2023-24).

Conclusion

India’s agricultural trade surplus is narrowing due to rising imports of edible oils and pulses, along with declining exports of key commodities like sugar, wheat, and marine products. While some export sectors such as rice, spices, and coffee remain strong, global price fluctuations and domestic production challenges continue to shape India’s agricultural trade trajectory.

Strategic policy interventions will be necessary to balance exports and imports while ensuring food security and stable farmer incomes.