Source: In times of climate change, India and Pakistan need to update the Indus Waters Treaty, The Indian Express, 16 May, 2025
India has formally informed Pakistan of its decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) of 1960, citing drastic geopolitical changes, sustained cross-border terrorism, and the need to reassess treaty obligations.
The move follows a recent terrorist attack in Jammu and Kashmir and reflects India’s concerns over not fully utilizing its water rights under the treaty.
Despite heated rhetoric, India currently lacks the infrastructure to significantly alter river flows to Pakistan. Both nations face mounting water crises due to population growth, urbanization, outdated water practices, and climate change, making it imperative to re-negotiate a more adaptive and future-ready water-sharing framework.
Strategic Limitations and Political Rhetoric
Infrastructural Constraints in India
Despite recurring political rhetoric in India and Pakistan regarding control over the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers, the physical realities suggest otherwise. India currently lacks the necessary infrastructure to hold or divert these waters for any meaningful duration.
At present, it cannot store even a few days’ worth of flow from these rivers. Developing such capabilities would require significant investment and time, potentially extending over a decade or more.
Misalignment Between Political Discourse and Practical Capacity
Public statements in both countries often overlook these technical limitations. This gap between political intent and logistical feasibility underscores the importance of focusing on cooperative solutions over unilateral assertions.
Evolution of Context Since the 1960 Treaty
Demographic Growth and Urbanisation
When the Indus Waters Treaty was signed in 1960, both India and Pakistan were vastly different in demographic and developmental terms. India’s population has grown from 445 million to 1.46 billion — a more than threefold increase. Similarly, Pakistan’s population surged from 45.7 million to 255 million.
Urbanisation has also accelerated. In 1960, only about 18% of Indians and less than 20% of Pakistanis lived in urban areas. Today, those figures are around 36% and nearly 40%, respectively — and rising steadily.
Shifts in Economic Indicators
In 1960, Pakistan had a higher per capita GDP than India. However, by 2024, India’s per capita GDP stood at $2,698, about 40% higher than Pakistan’s $1,647. This reversal reflects broader economic trends that have reshaped both countries’ development priorities and resource needs.
Rising Water Demand and Mismanagement
Increasing Pressures on Water Resources
Population growth, urban expansion, and improved living standards have drastically increased the demand for water. However, neither country has adequately addressed demand-side water management or water quality concerns.
Most efforts have focused on increasing supply — an approach that is no longer sustainable, especially in arid regions like the Indus Basin.
Impact of the Green Revolution
The Green Revolution, which began after the treaty’s signing, transformed agriculture in Indian and Pakistani Punjab. While it boosted food production, it also significantly raised water consumption. Groundwater levels in both regions are now falling at alarming rates — over 50 cm annually, and in some areas, over one metre per year.
The Agricultural Challenge
Unsustainable Agricultural Water Use
Agriculture accounts for about 85% of India’s and 90% of Pakistan’s total water use. This level of dependence on water-intensive practices is no longer tenable. Both countries must rethink how water is used in farming.
Learning from Global Examples
China provides a relevant example. Between 1975 and 2005, it reduced irrigation water use per hectare by 40% while increasing agricultural output twelvefold. India and Pakistan need to adopt similar strategies — increasing productivity while reducing water use.
Gaps in the Original Treaty
Exclusion of Groundwater and Water Quality
The Indus Waters Treaty only addresses surface water distribution. It overlooks crucial aspects such as groundwater use, water quality, and mechanisms for managing water demand — all of which are vital under current conditions.
Outdated Framework for Modern Challenges
In 1960, climate change, glacier melt, and extreme weather were not yet considered significant threats. Today, however, the region faces intensified floods, prolonged droughts, and rising temperatures, all of which directly impact water availability.
Climate Stress and Future Risks
Melting Glaciers and Altered River Flows
Himalayan glaciers, which feed the Indus system, have been melting at increasing rates. This has led to higher river flows in spring and summer — a trend expected to reverse after 2050 when much of the glacier mass could disappear.
Rising Temperatures and Water-Energy Stress
The Indian subcontinent is facing record-breaking heatwaves. For instance, temperatures in Delhi remained above 40°C for 28 consecutive days in 2024. Such extreme heat increases energy demands for cooling, which in turn increases the need for water for thermal and nuclear power plant cooling — placing additional stress on water resources.
The Need for a Revised Water Treaty
An Agreement Outdated by Circumstance
By 2000, the Indus Waters Treaty had already begun to show signs of irrelevance. Its rigid framework does not allow adaptation to emerging environmental, technological, or demographic shifts.
A Call for Institutional Reform and Dialogue
Neither India nor Pakistan has established dedicated institutions to research or propose a more flexible and responsive version of the treaty. While Pakistan has recently expressed some willingness to discuss India’s concerns, meaningful dialogue and collaborative action remain lacking.
Looking Ahead: Rethinking Water Governance
Beyond the Treaty: Managing Water in Practice
Regardless of what becomes of the Indus Waters Treaty, both countries must urgently address their broader water management challenges. This includes rethinking agricultural practices, urban planning, and energy-water linkages.
Towards Sustainable and Cooperative Solutions
Water governance must evolve to reflect current realities. For both India and Pakistan, the future lies in cooperative, science-based water management — not outdated treaties or political posturing.