AI, Employment Disruption And India’s Human Capital Challenge
Context
AI is rapidly expanding human productivity but is also expected to disrupt labour markets.
India faces this transition with a large population but uneven education quality and limited job readiness.
Source: P Chidambaram writes: Aye for AI, but some fear too, The Indian Express
Core Points:
- AI will significantly multiply human capabilities and productivity.
- India has a large and growing human resource base until at least 2050, but its quality differs from developed countries.
- In developed countries, most people are school-educated, many are college-educated, and lifelong learning opportunities exist.
- In India, high primary enrolment contrasts with declining enrolment at upper primary, secondary and higher secondary levels.
- Gross Enrolment Ratio in higher education is only 45–50%.
- Many undergraduate degrees do not make students skilled or employable.
- AI may disrupt labour markets at unprecedented speed, especially in white-collar jobs.
- Fear exists alongside optimism that AI will open doors to future growth.
- Routine and repetitive jobs are especially vulnerable to automation.
- India’s biggest structural problem is lack of adequate jobs.
- Youth unemployment is high, and a large share of workers are self-employed or in casual labour.
- AI’s impact will differ between advanced economies and developing countries.
- For developing countries, AI will be a stress test for state capacity.
- There is time between invention and diffusion to take hard policy measures.
- India must redesign education, skilling and job-creation strategies to absorb AI shocks. A future with fewer jobs risks social instability and raises fundamental questions about the role of work.
Key Details
- AI could displace a significant portion of jobs across wide occupational categories.
- Study in India found that AI recognises caste, reflecting human-taught bias.
- Vulnerable jobs include ticket issuers, conductors, rail signal persons, traffic police, stenographers, typists, tourist guides, translators, lab technicians, bank tellers, private tutors, etc.
- Microsoft CEO stated many white-collar tasks will be automated; Microsoft cut thousands of jobs in 2025.
- TCS announced letting go of more than 12,000 employees in 2025.
- Vinod Khosla predicted IT services and BPO firms could almost disappear within five years.
- Official unemployment rate: 5.1%; youth unemployment: 15%.
- About 55% of the employed are self-employed or casual workers.
- CEA: AI may help advanced economies with demographic decline, but will stress developing countries.
- CEA estimate: India needs to create at least 80 lakh jobs every year.
- Proposed measures include:
- Creating diverse jobs for school dropouts.
- Separating academic and non-academic streams at higher secondary level.
- Closing many ‘pass’ courses in non-science subjects.
- Massive investment in education, healthcare and environment management.
- Strengthening local and regional markets and banks.
- Supporting MSMEs as major job creators.
- Requiring AI adopters who destroy jobs to create an equal number of jobs.
Great Nicobar Island Project And NGT Clearance
Context
The National Green Tribunal (NGT) has upheld environmental clearances for the Holistic Development of Great Nicobar Island project.
The ruling follows prolonged litigation over balancing national strategic interests with ecological protection.
Source: Why has NGT cleared the Nicobar project?, The Hindu
Core Points:
- NGT concluded the second round of litigation and ruled that environmental safeguards are in place.
- Project is an integrated infrastructure development plan by ANIIDCO.
- Estimated project cost: ₹80,000–90,000 crore.
- Requires diversion of 130.75 sq km of forest land (about 18% of the island).
- Projected to generate over 1.28 lakh jobs by 2052.
- Government describes the project as strategically and nationally important.
- Great Nicobar lies about 40 km from the Malacca Strait.
- Project aims to strengthen India’s maritime presence and reduce dependence on foreign transshipment ports.
- Island is a biodiversity hotspot with sensitive ecosystems.
- NGT adopted a “balanced approach” between environmental protection and national security.
- With clearance upheld, ANIIDCO can proceed with development.
Key Details
- Major Components of the Project:
- International Container Transshipment Terminal (ICTT)
- 450 MVA gas and solar-based power plant
- Large-scale township and area development
- International airport
- Regulatory History:
- Stage-I forest clearance: October 2022
- Environmental and CRZ clearances: November 11, 2022
- April 3, 2023: NGT flagged deficiencies on coral conservation, environmental data, and zoning
- High-Powered Committee (HPC) constituted
- Final NGT order issued after reviewing HPC findings
- Ecological Concerns:
- Initial surveys recorded 20,668 coral colonies
- 16,150 colonies to be translocated
- Species present: Leatherback Sea Turtle, Nicobar Megapode, Saltwater Crocodile
- Critics alleged overlap with ICRZ-IA (most sensitive zone)
- Concerns over one-season baseline data and seismic risks
- NGT Findings:
- ZSI: No “major” coral reef in direct work area, only scattered colonies
- NCSCM site visit: No part of port within prohibited ICRZ-IA zone
- One-season data accepted as islands are not “high erosion” stretches
- Translocation of corals considered adequate protection
- Tribal Issues:
- Island inhabited by Shompen and Nicobari tribes
- EAC found no disturbance or displacement of tribal habitations
- Habitat rights to be protected under Forest Rights Act
- ANIIDCO to fund A&N Tribal Welfare Department for welfare and protection
AI Impact Summit 2026 And the New Delhi Declaration
Context
India hosted the AI Impact Summit (February 16–20) in New Delhi, drawing global leaders and AI executives.
The summit culminated in the New Delhi Declaration on AI, endorsed by 88 countries and international organisations.
Source: What are the key takeaways from AI summit?, The Hindu
Core Points:
- AI summits have been held annually since 2023.
- First summit: Bletchley Park (U.K.), focused on AI safety.
- 2024 edition: Seoul.
- February 2025 AI Action Summit: Paris, co-chaired by PM Narendra Modi and President Emmanuel Macron.
- Paris summit saw a shift from safety-first to innovation-focused approach, led by U.S. Vice-President J.D. Vance.
- India’s priorities:
- Democratise AI access.
- Increase relevance for the Global South.Expand representation of under-represented languages in LLM training.
- Promote “safe and trusted” AI.
- Domestically, India aimed to:
- Position itself as a hub for AI infrastructure and research.
- Attract investments.
- Encourage AI adoption in healthcare, agriculture, and education.
- Working groups focused on human capital, inclusion, safe AI, resilience, innovation, efficiency, science, democratisation of AI resources, and AI for economic development.
- 88 countries and international organisations signed the New Delhi Declaration on AI.
- Commitments under the declaration are voluntary and non-binding.
- Summit aimed to foster international partnerships and promote AI for economic growth and social good.
Key Details
- Over five lakh visitors attended the summit.
- $250 billion in investment commitments announced.
- $20 billion committed for frontier deep-tech research.
- More than 500 discussions held during the event.
- India joined the U.S.-led Pax Silica initiative to counter concentration in electronics manufacturing and critical minerals.
- Declaration signed by major AI stakeholders including the U.S., China, and France.
- Launch of Sarvam AI’s LLM:
- First domestically trained multi-billion parameter LLM.
- Bengaluru-based firm with private equity investment and government support under the IndiaAI Mission.
- Models claimed to be efficient and benchmark-competitive.
- Announced as open source.
- Beta chatbot interface launched post-summit.
- Key Elements of the New Delhi Declaration:
- Charter for “democratic diffusion” of AI.
- Global AI Impact Commons (database of use cases).
- Trusted AI Commons (repository of tools, benchmarks, best practices).
- International Network of AI for Science Institutions.
- AI for Social Empowerment Platform.
- AI Workforce Development Playbook and Reskilling Principles.
- Guiding Principles on Resilient and Efficient AI.
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