India has long advocated the rise of a multipolar order, envisioning it as a system that widens strategic choices. Yet, the realities of such an order reveal not only flexibility but also heightened uncertainty. The shifting alignments of major powers pose difficult questions for India’s foreign policy, demanding a deeper reassessment of strategy.

Multipolarity And Its Instability

• Bipolar Stability: International relations scholars generally view bipolar systems as more stable, since two dominant powers monitor only each other, making their interactions predictable.
• Multipolar Complexity: In contrast, multipolarity involves three or more powers, creating a far more unpredictable environment where alliances shift constantly.
• India’s Expectation: India favoured multipolarity for its promise of greater room in external relations, but this flexibility comes at the cost of rising uncertainty and suspicion among competing powers.

Emerging Strategic Realities

• Uncertain Partnerships: India can no longer assume the United States will always offer support, even beyond the Trump presidency, raising doubts about the reliability of partnerships.
• Competing Interests: China, Russia, and the European Union pursue their own shifting priorities, making commitments fragile and forcing India to constantly recalibrate its policies.
• Multilateral Illusion: Indian thinking often equates multipolarity with stronger multilateralism. In practice, however, institutional cooperation is weakening as states turn to narrower deals.

Dangers Of A Fragmented Order

• Precarious Alliances: India’s support at forums like the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation may prove unreliable, as powers like China and Russia can easily strike separate deals with the US.
• Transactional Politics: In a multipolar order, agreements are often temporary and self-serving, leaving India vulnerable to abrupt shifts.
• Strategic Reassessment: Beyond immediate disputes with the US, India must prepare for an uncertain global order where dependence on others may be risky.

Source: So this is what multipolarity looks like, The Indian Express, September 6, 2025

The Idea Of A Multipolar World

A multipolar world is marked by power distributed among three or more centers, unlike unipolar or bipolar systems, shaping politics, economics, and security.

Historical Evolution

• Westphalian Era (1648–1945): Multiple European powers coexisted, balancing each other through diplomacy.
• Cold War Bipolarity (1945–1991): The US–USSR rivalry structured the system, with smaller states aligned to either bloc.
• Unipolar Moment (1991–2008): The US dominated militarily, politically, and financially after the Cold War.
• Return of Multipolarity (2008–Present): China, the EU, India, and Russia rise as major actors, joined by regional powers like Brazil, Japan, and South Africa.

Forces Driving Multipolarity

• Economic Growth: Rising GDP in China and India, Russia’s resurgence, and emerging markets redistribute power.
• Military Modernization: Naval expansion by China, India’s acquisitions, and Russia’s partnerships challenge US dominance.
• Institutional Alternatives: Bodies like BRICS, SCO, and AIIB provide forums beyond Western-led governance.
• Technological Spread: Access to AI, 5G, and space technologies reduces reliance on a single power center.
• Flexible Coalitions: Issue-based alliances form across diverse interests, beyond rigid East–West divisions.

Features Of A Multipolar Order

• Shifting Alliances: Partnerships are temporary and issue-driven, not fixed blocs.
• Medium Power Influence: States like Brazil or Indonesia leverage regional strengths to shape global debates.
• Complex Security: Multiple nuclear states and volatile regions increase risks of miscalculation.
• Economic Interdependence: Global supply chains connect all poles, making crises quickly international.

Implications For Governance

• Institutional Reform: Demands grow for UNSC reform and IMF voting share adjustments.
• Normative Contestation: Sovereignty, human rights, and data governance face sharp divisions.
• Diplomatic Balancing: Many states seek “strategic autonomy” instead of binding alliances.
• Competitive Cooperation: Rivalries coexist with cooperation in areas like climate change and pandemics.

India’s Strategic Position

• Non-Alignment 2.0: India retains flexibility by engaging all poles while avoiding binding blocs.
• Regional Priorities: “Act East” and “Neighbourhood First” policies counterbalance China’s influence.
• Quad Partnership: Cooperation with the US, Japan, and Australia supports a free and open Indo-Pacific.
• Voice of the South: Hosting BRICS 2025 and leading in the G20, India champions Global South concerns.

Risks And Challenges

• Security Rivalries: Arms races and proxy conflicts may deepen without confidence-building measures.
• Decision-Making Gridlock: Diverging interests can stall global institutions.
• Fragmented Economies: Competing standards in trade and technology risk dividing markets.
• Divergent Norms: Conflicts over governance and rights weaken cooperative frameworks.