Mohamed Muizzu, a pro-China leader, has claimed victory in the Maldives’ presidential election. He has ousted the current president, Mohamed Solih. The final round of voting brought about this result, following an inconclusive first round.
Muizzu managed to secure 54.06 percent of the votes in this decisive run-off. Incumbent President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih admitted defeat shortly before the day ended.
Muizzu’s campaign focused heavily on countering India’s political and economic influence in the Maldives. The implications of his win for India-Maldives relations are yet to become clear.
Recapping Maldivian Political Developments
- Following the 2018 elections, India expedited its development projects in the Maldives. This was a move to regain the influence it lost to China during President Yameen’s tenure.
- Despite Yameen’s ‘India First’ policy, he notably aligned himself with China.
- The opposition heavily criticised Solih for his close ties with India. They accused him of compromising Maldivian independence by seeking India’s approval for all decisions.
- There were concerns about the alleged presence of Indian security personnel in the Maldives.
- During Yameen’s presidency, his alignment with China, especially in the Indian Ocean region, raised significant concerns for India.
- Yameen is serving an 11-year jail term for alleged corruption. Interestingly, this is the same prison in which his political rivals were formerly held.
- Muizzu had promised to release Yameen if he came into power.
How China’s Rising Influence Will Impact India’s Strategic Interests
- In 2018, the newly elected Solith’s government in Maldives received an aid package of $1.4 billion from India.
- India is involved in numerous development efforts in Maldives, including the significant Greater Male connectivity project.
- However, the change in government under Muizzu might disrupt the defence and security collaboration, leaning more towards China.
- During his presidency, Yameen had demanded India remove its navy helicopters and personnel from Maldives. Muizzu has hinted at a similar stance.
- India’s contributions to Maldives include joint exercises, maritime awareness programs, hardware gifts, infrastructure development, and constructing a new defense ministry headquarters.
- India also helps in developing a Coastal Radar System (CRS) in Maldives.
- Major Indian development projects in the Maldives face uncertainty. In 2012, following Nasheed’s coup, the new regime terminated Indian conglomerate GMR group’s contract to operate and develop Malé International Airport.
- GMR group won an arbitration proceeding to obtain compensation from the Maldivian government. This led to major Chinese companies entering the Maldives and initiating key infrastructure projects.
- The geographical location of Maldives on major sea lanes of the Indian Ocean adds to its strategic importance.
- The loss of good relations with the Maldives could pose a significant setback for India, given China’s ‘String of Pearls’ strategy.
- Eliminating India’s influence from South Asia may be an unrealistic aim.
- Despite this, China has been consistently expanding its influence in areas traditionally under India’s sway over the past two decades.
Also Read | India China Relations: Key Issues
Greater Male Connectivity Project
- A 6.74 km-long bridge and causeway link will connect Male to the nearby islands of Villingli, Gulhifalhu, and Thilafushi. This innovative project will use renewable energy sources, ensuring sustainability and environmental consciousness.
- The project is supported by a generous grant of USD 100 million, along with a substantial Line of Credit (LOC) amounting to USD 400 million, both provided by India.
- This is not just India’s largest project in the Maldives, but also the most significant infrastructure endeavour in the Maldives as a whole.