Source: Exploring India’s potential in the Arctic region, The Hindu, April 23
As the Arctic melts, new trade routes like the Northern Sea Route (NSR) are reshaping global commerce and geopolitics. For India, the Arctic represents both a strategic opportunity and an environmental challenge, requiring timely action, balanced diplomacy, and investment in maritime capabilities.
Arctic: A Climate Alarm And Strategic Asset
- A Sign of the Climate Crisis: The Arctic is rapidly melting, acting as a warning for the looming climate disaster. It reflects the growing threat of climate change as temperatures rise and ice continues to disappear.
- Geopolitical Importance: Beyond climate concerns, the Arctic is gaining strategic value. As new sea routes appear and sea levels rise, the region is becoming a center of geopolitical interest.
- Future Energy Source: The Arctic holds the potential to become a vital energy source for the Global South. India, while opposing reckless exploitation, must ensure it has a say in the region’s commercial future.
The Melting Ice And The Northern Sea Route
- Shrinking Sea Ice: According to NASA, Arctic sea ice in September is now reducing at a rate of 12.2% per decade, based on data from 1981 to 2010. This shows a consistent and worrying trend.
- New Trade Opportunities: The melting ice is opening access to the Northern Sea Route (NSR), a new shipping path that links the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. This route is expected to significantly cut down cargo travel time and freight costs.
- Strategic Fit for India: The NSR is the shortest connection between Europe and Asia. It fits into India’s long-term plans to develop major ports and explore new trade routes for both economic and strategic reasons.
India’s Arctic Engagement
India’s connection with the Arctic dates back over a century, starting with the signing of the Svalbard Treaty in 1920. Today, India is among the few developing countries—with only China as the other—to operate a dedicated Arctic research station, Himadri.
In 2024, India took another step forward. The Institute for Governance and Sustainable Development and the National Council of Applied Economic Research collaborated to assess how Arctic changes, especially the loss of sea ice, could affect India’s monsoon systems and agricultural productivity.
Strengthening India’s Arctic Policy
Aligning Vision with Action
India released its Arctic Policy in 2022, but timely implementation is crucial if the country wants to make meaningful progress—particularly regarding the Northern Sea Route (NSR). A clear and focused plan is needed to translate policy goals into real-world strategies.
Shipbuilding for Harsh Waters
Navigating the NSR demands specialized maritime capabilities, especially in the near term when conditions are rough. India must ramp up its shipbuilding efforts to meet these Arctic demands.
The 2025–26 Budget has already laid a foundation by creating a $3 billion Maritime Development Fund for the Ministry of Shipping. Alongside this, new shipbuilding clusters are being promoted to increase ship variety, size, and resilience—especially ice-class vessels essential for Arctic voyages.
Multilateral Cooperation and the Need for Capacity Building
To succeed in the Arctic, India must engage in international cooperation. This includes:
- Capacity building programs
- Training frameworks
- Knowledge-sharing platforms
These areas require global partnerships and strong diplomatic engagement. The upcoming years must see India actively shaping these dialogues.
Why the Arctic Is Gaining Worldwide Attention
The Arctic is no longer a matter of concern only for the nations within its icy boundaries. Today, more countries from outside the region—referred to as Observer states—are showing increasing interest in the Arctic Council, outnumbering the Arctic states themselves. This shift underscores a growing international awareness of the Arctic’s strategic importance, especially in light of how fragile and exposed global trade routes are to rising geopolitical rivalries.
Understanding the Arctic Council
What Is the Arctic Council?
The Arctic Council is a key intergovernmental forum dedicated to addressing issues that affect both the Arctic states and the Indigenous communities that call the region home. Established to foster cooperation, coordination, and interaction among the Arctic nations, the Council tackles challenges related to environmental protection, sustainable development, and the well-being of Arctic populations.
Who Are the Core Members?
Only countries with territorial claims within the Arctic Circle are eligible for full membership. These eight Arctic states are:
- Canada
- Denmark
- Finland
- Iceland
- Norway
- Russia
- Sweden
- United States
These nations possess sovereign rights over Arctic lands and are the primary decision-makers within the Council.
Role and Reach of Observer States
Who Can Become an Observer?
Countries and organizations that are not part of the Arctic region can apply for Observer status, which is granted at biennial Ministerial Meetings. While Observers do not have voting privileges, they are permitted to attend meetings and engage in the Council’s working groups. This inclusion allows them to contribute to discussions and initiatives related to Arctic affairs.
Current List of Observer Countries
As of now, 13 non-Arctic nations hold Observer status within the Council:
- France
- Germany
- Italy
- Japan
- Netherlands
- China
- Poland
- India
- South Korea
- Singapore
- Spain
- Switzerland
- United Kingdom
These nations participate in scientific research, environmental monitoring, and economic development projects in the Arctic.
Observer Organizations: Intergovernmental, Parliamentary, and NGOs
Multilateral and Governmental Institutions
Several international and regional organizations have also secured Observer status. These include:
- UN Environment Programme (UNEP)
- UN Development Programme (UNDP)
- Arctic Parliamentarians
- International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN)
- International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies
- Nordic Council
- Northern Forum
Non-Governmental Participants
NGOs that focus on environmental conservation, Indigenous rights, and sustainable development are also part of the Council’s observer network. These include:
- World Wide Fund for Nature – Arctic Programme
- Oceana
- University of the Arctic
- Association of World Reindeer Herders
- Other environmental and community-focused NGOs
The Arctic Circle India Forum: A Pivotal Moment
This year’s Arctic Circle India Forum will be held on May 3–4 in New Delhi. The event presents an opportunity to:
- Reframe Arctic conversations from an Asian and Indian perspective
- Drive progress on India’s Arctic ambitions
- Foster stakeholder participation and strategic alliances
- There’s even the possibility of appointing a ‘polar ambassador’ to represent India’s interests on international platforms.
Balancing Trade Ambitions with Climate Realities
India must weigh commercial opportunities against climate risks. Cargo movement through the NSR has exploded—from just 41,000 tonnes in 2010 to nearly 37.9 million tonnes in 2024.
At the same time, 2024 marked a troubling milestone. The scientific journal Nature Climate Change reported that global temperatures crossed the 1.5°C mark, breaching a key Paris Agreement threshold. Even if temporary, this could signal the beginning of a long-term climate shift.
India now faces a critical policy question:
- How can it advance its commercial interests in the Arctic without accelerating the breakdown of one of Earth’s most delicate ecosystems?
- The answer lies in balanced diplomacy, sustainable innovation, and global cooperation with like-minded partners.
Russia: A Natural Partner in the Arctic
With its long Arctic coastline and deep expertise in polar navigation and training, Russia stands out as a key partner for India to explore the Northern Sea Route (NSR). In July 2024, during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Moscow, both nations agreed to establish a working group on the NSR under their bilateral intergovernmental commission.
The Chennai–Vladivostok Maritime Corridor also shows promise as a link connecting Indian ports to key Arctic locations like Pevek, Tiksi, and Sabetta.
Navigating Geopolitical Dilemmas
Aligning too closely with Russia, however, carries strategic implications. Such a move could be seen as indirect support for China’s Polar Silk Road—a northern extension of its Belt and Road Initiative.
This would help China bypass the Malacca Strait, a crucial chokepoint, and gain greater influence over the Arctic trade routes—a scenario India must carefully evaluate.
On the other hand, if India leans towards the Western bloc, particularly the United States, it risks losing access to vast Arctic resources that remain under Russian control. This trade-off makes India’s Arctic approach particularly complex.
The Need for Strategic Balance
An ideal, though difficult, path would be for India to collaborate with both the U.S. and Russia, balancing its interests without taking sides.
India should also work with Japan and South Korea, nations that share similar concerns about:
- The increasing China–Russia partnership in the Arctic
- The threat of losing commercial ground to Chinese businesses in the region
Together, this trio can advocate for reforms within the Arctic Council, pushing for a structure that is more inclusive and fair, especially for emerging economies.
India’s Strategic Engagement with the Northern Sea Route (NSR)
Prime Minister Modi’s State Visit to Russia
Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Russia on July 8-9, 2024, for the 22nd India-Russia Bilateral Summit.
Key Agreements
- Trade, economic, and investment cooperation in Russia’s Far East from 2024 to 2029.
- Cooperation in the Arctic region, specifically developing the Northern Sea Route (NSR).
The Northern Sea Route: A Key Maritime Corridor
Importance of the NSR
- Global Trade Potential: The Northern Sea Route (NSR) connects the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans via the Arctic Ocean, reducing travel time between Asia and Europe by 10-14 days compared to the Suez Canal.
- Environmental Changes: The melting of Arctic ice is making the NSR increasingly navigable, boosting its potential as an alternative trade route.
Russia’s Infrastructure Challenges and Need for Partners
- Lack of Infrastructure: Russia’s Arctic coastline faces infrastructure gaps, with limited ports and connectivity to its commercial hubs.
- Icebreaking Ship Shortage: The global shortage of icebreaking vessels complicates the short-term operation of the NSR.
India and China’s Role
As major importers of Russian energy, both India and China are well-placed to help develop and operate the NSR along Russia’s coast.
China’s Arctic Strategy
Polar Silk Road (PSR) Initiative
Goal of PSR: China’s Polar Silk Road (PSR), launched in 2017, aims to develop Arctic infrastructure and increase cooperation between China, Russia, and Arctic nations, forming a part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
Challenges for China in the Arctic
- Failed Partnerships: China’s attempts to form partnerships with Arctic nations such as Norway, Finland, and Denmark have faced setbacks due to financial, sovereignty, and security risks.
- Western Influence: These countries, closely allied with the West, have been pressured by the United States to reject Chinese proposals due to concerns about dual-use infrastructure and opaque loan agreements.
Russia’s Strategic Concerns
Balancing China’s Influence in the Far East: Russia is concerned about China’s expanding influence in the Far East and Arctic, especially with China’s historical interest in the region.
Russia’s Response: To counterbalance China, Russia has invited India to invest in the development of the Northern Sea Route, strengthening the longstanding India-Russia partnership.
India’s Role in the Development of the NSR
India’s Interest in the Eastern Maritime Corridor
Chennai-Vladivostok Corridor: India aims to develop the Chennai-Vladivostok Eastern Maritime Corridor, which would reduce travel time between India and Europe by two weeks.
Strategic and Economic Importance for India
- Energy Trade: India’s engagement with Russia on the NSR is rooted in energy security, with trade in energy becoming a central pillar of the India-Russia relationship, especially after Russia’s military operations in Ukraine.
- Resource-rich Regions: The Russian Far East and Arctic hold vast untapped resources, including gas, minerals, and petroleum. India is keen to strengthen economic ties with these regions, highlighted by its 10% stake in the Arctic LNG II project through ONGC Videsh.
Countering China’s Influence in the Arctic
Geopolitical Aim: India’s involvement in the NSR is also aimed at preventing China from dominating a crucial energy route that could be vital for India’s energy supply.
Strategic Positioning: By investing in the NSR, India ensures it has a significant role in the future of Arctic trade and energy resources, thus securing its interests in the region.