Weaponisation Of Mineral Supply Chains And India’s Strategic Realignment

Source: Critical minerals are the new oil. India can’t afford to depend on China, The Print, 18 July, 2025

India’s growing need for critical minerals is no longer an economic concern alone; it has become a pressing national security challenge. As global powers tighten their grip over mineral supply chains, India must recalibrate its strategy to reduce dependency, especially on China, and secure long-term autonomy. Recent diplomatic engagements, international alliances, and domestic missions point toward a gradual shift, but critical gaps remain.

The Geopolitical Stakes Of Critical Minerals

Strategic Diplomatic Outreach: Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s meetings with Argentina and Chile during the BRICS Summit in Brazil aimed at building partnerships with lithium-rich nations.
Global Alarm Over Supply Security: Modi cautioned against the strategic use of critical minerals as tools of coercion, emphasizing collaboration for secure and reliable global supply chains—a concern echoed at G20, Quad, and BRICS platforms.
National Security at Stake: India’s import reliance on lithium, cobalt, nickel, and rare earth elements (REEs) creates multilayered dependencies, leaving the country exposed to supply disruptions and coercive leverage.
Beyond Economics: Critical minerals are foundational to India’s ambitions in clean energy transitions, defence self-reliance, and next-generation manufacturing.

China’s Dominance And Its Strategic Leverage

Global Refining Supremacy: According to the IEA, China controls 62% of lithium, 33% of nickel, 77% of cobalt, 87% of graphite, and 76% of REE refining capacities, despite limited raw material reserves.
Sharp Import Spike: India’s lithium imports from China surged over 900% between 2023 and 2024; imports of graphite rose 85% between 2022 and 2024; nickel imports spiked by 137% in 2024.
Asymmetric Leverage Over Key Sectors: China’s dominance affects India’s ambitions in advanced electronics, clean-tech industries, missile systems, and secure communication technologies.
Weaponisation of Resources: China’s REE export restrictions have disrupted global electric vehicle manufacturing, while its demand for invasive end-use disclosures limits India’s access despite compliance, highlighting strategic misuse of mineral trade.

India’s Evolving Strategy For Diversification

Multilateral Partnerships: India is engaging with Zambia, Mongolia, and the DRC for early-stage mineral sourcing, and pursuing technology transfers with Japan.
Platform-Based Engagements: India has actively participated in platforms such as the Quad Security Dialogue, Minerals Security Partnership, Critical Raw Materials Club (EU+), and the Supply Chain Resilience Initiative.
Domestic Initiatives: The National Critical Minerals Mission, KABIL’s overseas acquisitions, IREL’s recycling initiatives, and private sector involvement reflect growing domestic momentum.
Persistent Vulnerabilities: Despite progress, India’s continued reliance on China for mineral refining leaves its ambitions fragile and susceptible to supply shocks and price volatility.

Toward Strategic Autonomy In Mineral Sovereignty

Limitations of the China+1 Strategy: While the “China+1” approach broadens India’s sourcing base, it must be complemented by robust investments in domestic downstream processing to truly attain mineral sovereignty.
Strategic Investments Over Short-Term Costs: India must prioritise long-term technological development and refining capacity, even if it appears less cost-efficient initially. Security, resilience, and autonomy must outweigh cost-driven decision-making.
Strengthening Institutions and Innovation: Public-private partnerships, targeted fiscal incentives, and enhanced roles for institutions like the National Critical Mineral Mission Outreach Forum and defence R&D agencies are essential to fostering innovation, technical expertise, and long-term mineral stockpiling.
Historical Lessons from Oil Sector Strategy: India’s development of a robust domestic oil refining industry—capable of processing crude from any global source—through early public and private investments offers a blueprint for critical mineral capacity building.
Critical Minerals as Public Infrastructure: Policymakers must reconceptualise critical minerals as public goods, central to India’s defence manufacturing, clean energy transitions, and long-term geopolitical standing.

Key Strategic Frameworks for India’s Mineral Security

China+1 Strategy (China Plus One)

The China+1 strategy refers to a global business practice aimed at diversifying supply chains. Instead of relying solely on China, companies maintain operations in China while also expanding to other countries such as India, Vietnam, or Thailand. This approach reduces overdependence on China.

In the context of India’s critical minerals sector, this means sourcing raw materials from countries beyond China to reduce supply chain risks. India is applying this strategy by partnering with countries like Australia, Chile, Zambia, and Mongolia to secure key resources such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, and rare earth elements (REEs).

Helps mitigate geopolitical coercion
Supports India’s strategic autonomy
Forms part of India’s broader “multi-vector strategy” in mineral security

National Critical Mineral Mission (NCMM)

Launched in early 2025, the National Critical Mineral Mission (NCMM) is a comprehensive initiative with a ₹34,300 crore outlay over seven years:

₹16,300 crore from the government
₹18,000 crore from PSUs and private investors

The mission covers the entire value chain:

Exploration
Mining
Beneficiation
Processing
Recycling (onshore and offshore)

Key features of NCMM:

Fast-track approvals for mining projects
Strategic stockpiling of minerals
Establishment of processing parks
Promotion of R&D and startups through PRISM and Centres of Excellence
Encouragement of international acquisitions (e.g., via KABIL)
Foreign collaborations to reduce import dependency

The NCMM adopts a “whole-of-government” approach, involving coordination among:

Central ministries
Public Sector Units (PSUs)
Private firms
Research bodies such as GSI and CSIR

Its objective is to make India self-reliant in critical minerals essential for clean technology and defence.

Minerals Security Partnership (MSP)

The Minerals Security Partnership (MSP) is a coalition of 14 countries plus the EU, including India, aimed at securing resilient and ethical supply chains for critical minerals.