Emissions Gap Report 2023

The Emissions Gap Report 2023 points to a concerning trend: despite rising temperatures and worsening climate effects, global greenhouse gas emissions are still on the rise. The report, subtitled “Broken Record – Temperatures hit new highs, yet world fails to cut emissions,” underscores that we’re falling short of the goals set out in the Paris Agreement.

This is the 14th edition of the report. In it, leading climate scientists from around the globe study future emission trends and discuss potential answers to the climate change crisis.

About Emissions Gap Report

The Emissions Gap Report, an annual spotlight report by UNEP, is launched prior to the annual Climate negotiations. This report tracks the disparity between global emissions projections based on current country commitments and the necessary emissions reductions to limit global warming to 1.5°C. Each edition of the report delves into strategies for bridging this emissions gap, offering valuable insights and potential solutions.

What’s New In This Year’s Report?

The 2023 Emission Gap Report highlights improvements since the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015.
The projected increase in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 has dropped from 16% to 3%.

Targets Yet To Hit

For the 2°C pathway under the Paris Agreement, the predicted 2030 emissions still need to fall by 28%.
For the 1.5°C pathway, this reduction needs to be 42%.

Current Predictions

If all unconditional Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement are fully implemented, the temperature rise would be limited to 2.9°C this century.
Full implementation of conditional NDCs would reduce this rise to 2.5°C.

Calls For Action

The report urges all nations to speed up transformations towards low-carbon development.
Countries with higher emissions and capacity are asked to take more action and aid developing nations in low-emission development.

Looking Ahead

The report evaluates the potential of stronger implementation to lower gas emissions by 2035 to levels in line with 2°C and 1.5°C pathways.
The next round of NDCs are due in 2025.
It also examines the benefits and risks of Carbon Dioxide Removal methods, including nature-based solutions and direct air carbon capture and storage.

Key Findings Of The 2023 Emission Gap Report

Current Climate Commitments And Paris Agreement Targets

The commitments made by countries, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs), both conditional and unconditional, are insufficient.
If these NDCs are delivered by 2030 as planned, the world will still face a warming of 2.5°C. This exceeds the 2°C target outlined in the Paris Agreement.

The Implementation Gap And Its Effects

There is a significant implementation gap. This means there’s a contrast between the NDC commitments made by countries and the actual measures taken to achieve these commitments.
This gap is equal to five gigatonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalent, according to the report’s authors.
As a result of this implementation gap, under current policy, global warming will reach 3°C.

Recent Climate Records

The likelihood of restricting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels is only 14 per cent. This figure is based on the most positive climate action plans.
2022 and 2023 have seen a significant number of climate records broken.
There have been 86 instances of warming exceeding 1.5°C.
September 2023 was the hottest September on record.
Global emissions in 2022 peaked at 57.4 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent.

Contribution Of Fossil Fuels

Two-thirds of global GHG emissions are from fossil fuel-based CO2.
Countries are currently planning to produce double the amount of fossil fuels that is safe for maintaining temperatures below 1.5°C.

NDCs

149 parties have updated or replaced their NDCs.
148 of those include GHG reduction targets, and 97 are economy-wide.
The Emission Gap Report 2023 has highlighted a worrying gap in action to limit global warming.
Unconditional NDCs project a 14-gigatonne CO2 equivalent gap for a 2°C target.
For a 1.5°C goal, the projected gap is 22 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent.
This emissions gap represents the difference between estimated global GHG emissions following full NDC implementation and the least-cost pathways aligned with the Paris Agreement.

Unequal Contributions

The Emission Gap Report 2023 indicates significant inequalities in climate change contributions.
A small group of countries, namely the United States, the European Union, and China, contribute most to historical emissions and warming.

The Role Of The G20

The G20 nations collectively account for 75% of the current global warming.
Wealth is a defining factor, with rich households causing almost 50% of consumption-based emissions globally.

Emissions Inequality On A Micro Level

The top 10% income earners globally produce an impressive 45-49% of total emissions.
In contrast, the bottom 50% only contribute between 7-13% of total emissions.
These figures showcase the profound inequality of emissions within nations, underlining the influence of wealth and income disparities on climate change.

Recent Policies Within G20 Economies

Policies within G20 economies depict an inconsistent trajectory.
The US enacted the Inflation Reduction Act, projected to help attain two-thirds of their 2030 NDC goals.
The EU’s Fit for 55 and REPowerEU may exceed their 2030 targets but face hurdles due to rising investments in fossil gas structures and a temporary gas to coal shift.

Confidence In Net Zero Targets

As of September 2023, 97 out of 101 countries pledged to reach Net Zero. These countries account for 82% of global greenhouse gas emissions.
However, the commitments differ in diversity and scope.
Net Zero targets for 2050 or earlier cover 37% of global emissions.
Targets committing to Net Zero beyond 2050 account for 44% of global emissions.
Despite setting Net Zero targets, all G20 members show inadequate progress.
Legal status, implementation plans, and the pace of emission reduction are insufficient, leading to low confidence in Net Zero targets.

Need For Affordable Finance In Developing Countries

Approximately 2.4 billion people have no access to clean cooking sources.
Around 775 million people lack electricity.
There is a pressing need for affordable finance for clean energy investments in low and lower-middle-income countries.
These countries struggle with high debt, low clean energy investments, and exposure to fluctuating fossil fuel markets.
Affordable finance is vital, but it is significantly more expensive in these countries compared to wealthier nations.

Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR)

The report emphasizes the requirement of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) strategies.
Achieving Net Zero emissions is impossible without balancing residual emissions through CDR.

The Consequences Of Delaying Emission Reductions

Delaying substantial global reductions in greenhouse gas emissions increases our dependency on CDR.
The longer we delay emission cuts, the more we’ll need to remove CO2 from the atmosphere in the future.

Comparing CDR Approaches

The report provides a comparison of current and emerging CDR methods, considering their effectiveness, risks, and timescales.

Differentiating Between CDR And Other Concepts

CDR is specifically about direct CO2 removal from the atmosphere and its long-term storage.
Storage can be in geological, terrestrial, or ocean reservoirs, or even in products.
While Carbon Capture and Storage and Carbon Capture and Utilisation share some aspects with CDR, they never result in CO2 removal from the atmosphere when applied to CO2 emissions from fossil fuels.