Navigating India’s Strategic Compass With Russia

India’s diplomatic equilibrium is once again under strain due to geopolitical developments. A proposed US legislative move could penalise countries like India for continuing economic ties with Russia. In the backdrop of an evolving global power matrix, India is compelled to evaluate the utility and consequences of its longstanding partnership with Russia.

Emerging Diplomatic Pressure On India

• Proposed US Legislation and Tariffs: US Senator Lindsey Graham plans to introduce a bill that could impose a 500% tariff on American imports from countries that maintain trade with Russia. The bill reportedly has the endorsement of 84 co-sponsors and former President Donald Trump.
• Implications for Indian Diplomacy: If enacted, the bill would strain India’s diplomatic bandwidth, necessitating a reassessment of its ties with Russia amid mounting Western scrutiny.
• Potential Trigger for Strategic Debate: Even without legislative success, the upcoming visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to India is likely to reignite debates over the value and risks of India’s association with Russia.

Diverging Strategic Perspectives On India–Russia Relations

Arguments Supporting Continued Strategic Partnership With Russia

• Historical Legacy and Time-Tested Trust: Advocates of strong ties with Russia cite the long-standing friendship that dates back to the Cold War. The Soviet Union’s role during the 1971 India–Pakistan war is seen as a foundational moment, fostering deep goodwill among India’s political class and public.
• Support Against Western Opposition: During periods when the West—especially the US and UK—supplied advanced weaponry to Pakistan and declined India’s requests, the Soviet Union remained India’s primary defence partner and offered diplomatic support, notably through vetoes in the UN Security Council on Kashmir-related issues.
• Strategic Compatibility and Autonomy: This school argues that India and Russia have no fundamental strategic conflicts. Hence, the relationship helps safeguard India’s strategic autonomy, even during global realignments.
• Risks of Russian Dependence on China: They caution that distancing from Russia would only strengthen its reliance on China. A China-dependent Russia could compromise India’s interests, especially if Beijing attempts to influence Moscow’s regional choices.

Arguments Urging Strategic Caution In India–Russia Engagement

• Reassessing Historical Sentiment: Russoskeptics emphasize the need for pragmatic evaluation of contemporary Russia, asserting that past friendship should not dictate present choices—especially given Moscow’s ambiguous stance on India–China disputes.
• Violation of International Law: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is seen as a breach of sovereignty and international norms. Critics argue that such actions undermine any moral justification for India to support Russia diplomatically.
• Deepening Russia–China Ties: Moscow’s increasing strategic dependence on Beijing—across military, economic, and diplomatic spheres—is perceived as a threat to India’s long-term interests.
• Limited Value in a Declining Power: With Russia’s global influence waning, skeptics argue it can no longer significantly enhance India’s national capabilities. Moreover, Russia’s growing interest in military cooperation with Pakistan, including tentative engagement with Rawalpindi, raises serious concerns.
• Impact on India–US Relations: As India’s strategic convergence with the US deepens, continued proximity to Russia could constrain opportunities and weaken India’s position within the evolving global order.

Way Forward

• Reaffirm Strategic Priorities to the US: India must communicate to the United States that China continues to be the central concern in strategic alignment, not Russia.
• Calibrate Arms Import Diversification: While diversifying defence purchases is prudent, India must avoid pushing Russia to a point of insecurity by over-diversifying beyond a strategic threshold.
• Engage China to Avoid Strategic Overreach: India must work to prevent bilateral ties with China from deteriorating to the extent that Beijing is incentivised to exploit Russia’s dependency.
• Encourage Russian Strategic Rebalancing: India should urge Moscow to avoid isolating itself and consider recalibrating its Eurasia policy to preserve a balanced regional order that accommodates India as a significant partner.